***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 14.3 14.2 16.7 -2.5 14.0 16.7 15.5 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 13.4 13.2 16.4 -2.7 12.0 14.2 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 16.0 15.4 16.9 -2.6 10.1 13.1 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 11.6 11.5 14.8 -1.7 23.1 23.6 12.2 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 12.5 11.8 15.2 -2.0 14.6 18.3 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 11.8 11.7 12.9 -1.3 22.4 24.7 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 14.4 13.9 16.5 -2.6 13.1 15.3 15.2 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 7.5 7.1 12.5 -1.9 12.4 17.4 8.1 8.5 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 13.9 13.4 15.3 -2.1 13.2 16.4 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 13.8 13.2 13.4 -2.0 12.5 17.2 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 13.1 12.6 14.8 -2.2 9.9 14.5 14.2 14.7 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 11.5 10.9 13.7 -2.1 12.2 16.5 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 12.6 11.9 13.9 -1.9 10.0 15.7 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 14.3 13.8 15.0 -2.0 12.5 17.3 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 15.4 15.2 17.1 -1.8 17.3 20.1 15.8 16.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 14.0 13.4 14.6 -1.9 11.5 16.0 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 14.9 14.6 16.2 -2.6 13.7 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 12.0 11.5 12.9 -1.8 15.3 18.6 12.8 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 14.2 13.8 16.6 -2.6 12.1 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 8.2 8.0 11.2 -1.6 17.7 21.0 8.7 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 13.8 13.0 16.3 -2.3 11.1 15.0 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 13.6 13.2 16.7 -2.3 14.9 17.4 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 13.7 13.5 16.7 -2.4 13.3 14.9 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 14.1 13.6 15.0 -2.1 12.3 15.8 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 13.4 13.0 15.9 -2.3 15.8 18.7 14.5 15.1 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 13.1 13.0 12.9 -1.6 17.3 20.1 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 13.3 13.0 16.2 -2.5 15.7 17.8 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 12.7 12.7 15.4 -1.8 17.9 19.7 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 11.2 10.8 12.1 -1.8 14.2 18.9 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 14.2 13.9 16.7 -2.7 12.0 13.9 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------