***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 25.3 35.8 17.1 54.9 47.8 37.3 27.4 37.7 53.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 25.5 42.9 21.8 68.2 53.1 41.9 25.2 40.9 58.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 51.6 39.2 17.6 57.6 47.8 38.7 30.6 41.1 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 34.2 48.1 17.6 50.3 45.7 35.0 44.0 49.8 55.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 20.4 29.0 19.0 56.0 50.9 36.9 22.2 28.5 46.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 30.4 41.8 27.3 66.8 46.6 40.0 32.5 44.0 66.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 45.9 39.8 21.5 66.4 50.2 40.9 28.0 39.7 49.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 73.2 66.8 28.0 79.1 52.0 45.1 51.8 64.9 86.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 29.8 44.6 19.7 59.5 49.0 38.6 28.1 45.0 55.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 62.0 55.0 25.8 68.0 49.8 41.2 44.0 55.2 74.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 30.0 46.9 17.1 62.6 53.1 41.0 27.1 45.5 54.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 28.5 52.1 19.8 73.9 53.5 44.9 28.2 44.8 61.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 19.9 32.2 20.3 66.5 45.3 39.9 28.0 36.2 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 68.9 59.8 27.4 70.5 50.1 42.9 48.8 59.7 72.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 16.3 18.8 13.8 44.0 40.9 30.1 15.9 30.4 42.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 20.3 35.8 17.3 61.1 50.2 39.1 24.9 35.6 51.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 55.1 50.7 22.0 69.6 52.0 41.9 28.4 50.4 61.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 58.4 47.7 31.6 73.6 51.6 43.2 37.5 46.4 65.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 55.7 53.2 20.7 68.1 53.8 42.4 35.1 48.0 69.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 55.5 52.6 41.0 95.1 57.5 48.8 39.9 49.8 61.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 30.1 41.4 16.2 53.5 47.0 37.1 33.2 42.0 53.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 29.3 46.2 22.1 74.6 53.5 43.1 31.7 41.0 61.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 45.1 41.6 19.7 65.6 52.9 42.6 29.2 39.1 49.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 69.5 62.0 24.9 66.3 48.7 42.0 38.9 62.0 77.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 30.8 37.9 18.5 47.4 39.2 32.1 37.0 45.7 54.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 22.8 38.5 17.7 74.6 52.1 43.6 25.3 37.3 48.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 24.9 32.4 19.6 53.1 43.8 34.9 27.1 35.6 48.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 18.8 24.3 16.5 50.8 46.4 34.7 20.3 27.0 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 76.3 70.5 35.2 83.0 53.8 46.1 58.6 67.2 83.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 46.1 41.4 20.6 64.4 51.4 40.6 22.2 37.4 56.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------