***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.0 20.0 3.7 100.5 74.9 55.1 1.0 2.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.3 12.6 4.1 89.2 75.7 52.3 0.6 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.9 19.6 3.4 84.5 76.0 51.5 0.9 3.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 1.9 14.8 3.1 65.9 72.5 50.5 0.8 4.2 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.3 11.3 3.1 63.8 72.6 50.1 0.8 2.6 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.0 15.4 6.1 82.9 71.3 51.1 1.9 6.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.4 14.9 4.3 93.5 74.4 52.7 0.8 2.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.0 17.3 5.3 80.1 72.2 54.5 4.4 7.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.2 14.5 3.1 66.6 73.8 50.0 0.8 6.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 16.4 4.2 64.8 70.2 52.7 2.4 10.0 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.0 13.6 2.9 63.5 74.2 54.4 0.8 4.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.5 11.7 3.8 75.6 74.7 54.3 0.3 3.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.3 3.8 72.3 69.7 51.1 0.9 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.6 18.0 5.3 82.7 74.3 54.0 5.4 11.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 0.8 11.8 2.4 69.0 76.8 52.4 0.6 2.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.2 6.9 3.2 72.0 74.1 52.0 0.5 2.7 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.7 9.4 4.2 83.7 76.7 51.5 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.4 5.0 70.9 68.1 51.9 2.0 7.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.4 20.1 3.9 87.0 75.8 53.0 1.9 3.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.4 7.8 100.0 72.1 55.4 4.0 4.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.8 19.3 2.7 72.1 76.4 52.0 0.9 7.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.9 16.6 5.4 102.5 80.6 52.6 1.6 4.1 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.8 13.2 3.9 78.7 73.6 53.6 1.0 4.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.7 4.2 75.5 70.8 52.3 3.8 10.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.9 15.1 4.2 82.0 72.3 47.9 2.9 8.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.1 12.2 2.8 82.2 74.2 53.6 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.2 11.8 4.8 98.5 74.2 51.2 1.5 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.3 8.1 2.9 70.0 74.9 51.7 1.2 3.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.9 5.9 84.6 70.2 53.5 4.6 8.4 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.5 13.9 4.0 92.2 74.3 53.2 1.4 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------