***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.9 4.5 59.4 71.8 49.8 3.8 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.0 22.8 6.7 76.8 68.7 51.8 2.4 6.3 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.5 15.7 5.0 68.4 73.0 49.0 2.0 5.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.1 24.6 5.6 69.2 71.2 45.3 6.2 9.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.1 13.5 5.8 69.9 72.4 44.8 3.2 7.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.2 13.3 8.4 74.1 65.0 42.0 0.2 6.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.6 16.8 6.5 73.6 68.3 52.1 1.7 11.2 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.9 21.7 8.3 83.9 65.8 47.9 10.3 15.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.0 19.5 5.9 68.3 73.2 46.8 5.2 9.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 26.5 8.2 80.6 69.4 47.6 5.8 10.3 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.2 23.9 5.5 80.3 73.2 47.0 3.4 8.8 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.6 16.7 5.7 84.0 68.0 47.7 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.1 9.4 6.7 87.9 68.9 45.2 0.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.5 15.0 7.9 79.5 69.5 48.7 1.6 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.7 16.3 4.5 71.9 69.8 44.7 4.0 8.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.9 13.4 5.6 82.0 69.9 44.8 2.9 6.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.7 30.1 6.6 74.4 69.5 51.3 2.9 8.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 19.7 10.2 87.8 69.8 47.7 6.0 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.4 27.2 6.3 80.6 70.2 51.3 1.2 5.8 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 18.7 12.1 99.3 65.5 48.4 4.5 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.1 17.1 4.5 60.9 74.5 50.0 0.9 9.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.8 16.3 6.6 87.4 70.1 51.5 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.2 13.5 5.9 81.0 70.9 50.2 2.3 4.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.7 27.3 7.8 81.9 72.7 48.2 7.1 13.0 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.8 18.7 5.4 59.7 69.4 44.5 2.1 10.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.2 13.7 5.3 95.2 70.2 45.9 1.0 5.1 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.7 16.6 5.5 62.2 69.1 47.7 3.5 7.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 13.4 5.3 75.1 72.0 46.6 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.1 29.2 11.0 92.5 70.8 48.2 6.3 15.8 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.5 13.9 6.1 73.1 69.2 51.4 1.4 4.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------