***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.5 10.8 6.9 78.8 66.5 46.0 0.9 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.6 14.5 8.2 96.0 70.0 45.1 2.1 5.5 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.8 8.7 6.9 82.0 67.6 42.0 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 13.8 7.0 69.4 65.7 47.3 1.0 4.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.9 14.5 7.8 88.3 69.3 47.8 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.7 9.6 10.6 92.3 66.7 50.4 0.2 3.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.8 6.6 7.5 89.3 68.7 46.8 0.9 2.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.3 19.4 9.5 105.7 65.6 48.6 2.0 10.9 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 1.3 10.5 8.0 95.7 68.8 46.5 0.3 3.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.8 9.2 96.1 66.3 47.3 2.1 7.9 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.5 15.4 6.4 99.6 67.5 49.9 1.1 5.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.4 11.2 6.8 103.7 67.7 49.2 0.5 2.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.6 15.4 7.6 95.1 67.3 49.0 0.8 5.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 1.6 14.5 10.5 96.1 66.0 46.2 0.9 4.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.2 5.6 5.3 55.8 64.1 42.5 0.2 3.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.6 13.5 6.7 92.5 69.2 48.6 1.3 3.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.2 10.2 7.8 94.9 69.5 46.8 0.4 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 20.0 10.9 88.5 66.3 48.6 0.6 10.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.7 18.4 7.9 96.8 71.2 45.7 0.1 3.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.5 19.6 13.5 114.2 67.5 52.7 5.5 9.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.8 22.0 7.1 90.5 68.7 47.6 2.3 6.3 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.8 12.6 7.4 96.5 69.7 48.7 0.5 6.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 0.7 15.4 7.6 93.4 71.0 45.0 0.2 1.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.6 14.1 9.0 84.1 64.9 47.0 2.4 10.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.6 12.3 7.2 64.1 63.6 42.4 0.3 3.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.6 16.4 6.0 98.3 72.2 54.7 1.6 4.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.2 5.5 7.2 69.7 64.3 44.1 0.4 2.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.8 9.6 6.6 71.4 68.1 46.8 0.8 4.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 29.7 12.1 100.8 68.0 50.4 6.3 11.8 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.3 7.6 7.8 90.1 69.2 45.1 1.4 2.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------