***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.0 2.0 18.1 45.3 32.1 1.1 4.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.1 2.8 2.9 28.0 50.6 32.9 0.9 2.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.8 4.7 2.3 21.4 46.5 31.1 1.4 7.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.5 1.9 15.9 34.9 28.1 4.2 6.7 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 0.9 0.4 2.2 19.0 37.0 29.4 0.4 2.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.8 2.1 2.2 21.0 38.3 32.1 0.7 7.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.2 3.2 30.1 49.3 31.8 1.7 5.3 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 14.6 4.9 50.9 55.9 45.4 2.5 9.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 1.6 2.2 2.7 23.6 48.1 33.2 0.5 3.8 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.3 11.8 4.1 36.1 51.0 40.0 3.1 11.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.1 2.2 23.9 41.1 33.9 0.8 4.3 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.1 9.6 3.5 42.9 55.6 42.6 0.2 6.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 0.8 1.1 2.2 23.2 33.9 29.3 0.9 2.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.8 9.2 3.7 32.2 49.6 33.4 1.8 9.4 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 0.4 0.2 1.5 12.8 24.6 19.7 0.8 2.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 1.0 2.0 1.8 18.7 32.8 28.3 2.1 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.9 5.5 3.3 35.5 51.4 33.6 1.7 4.6 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.3 9.7 5.6 46.8 54.4 42.0 4.4 8.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.3 2.6 26.1 50.1 33.3 2.5 7.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.5 7.6 67.6 58.1 47.7 2.9 7.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.8 2.1 1.9 16.7 44.9 31.0 0.5 4.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.9 2.8 30.3 49.8 34.3 3.2 5.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.5 2.4 24.4 45.8 30.1 1.6 5.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.5 8.2 3.9 33.2 50.4 35.5 0.6 7.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.4 0.7 1.7 12.7 29.7 22.0 1.0 4.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.3 4.9 3.6 41.6 46.1 36.6 0.1 5.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.7 3.7 2.1 16.5 38.2 25.9 3.0 7.0 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 1.4 2.0 1.6 13.9 30.6 24.3 2.2 5.0 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 18.2 6.4 54.6 55.9 42.9 4.2 12.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.5 5.9 2.7 25.2 48.4 32.1 3.0 8.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------