***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 30.6 32.1 33.2 3.1 95.1 87.1 28.4 29.4 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 30.4 32.1 33.5 2.9 90.5 84.1 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 30.2 31.7 33.0 2.7 91.2 84.1 28.0 29.3 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 23.7 25.0 30.8 2.4 90.4 83.4 21.8 22.7 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 31.6 32.3 31.0 2.5 91.7 83.9 28.8 29.8 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 29.8 30.7 28.2 2.1 93.3 83.9 27.4 28.7 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 29.9 31.6 33.4 3.0 94.1 86.0 27.9 29.0 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 18.9 20.3 29.4 2.7 95.3 87.9 17.2 17.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 30.9 31.7 31.6 2.8 93.8 86.2 28.4 29.3 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 30.9 31.5 30.1 2.7 94.1 86.5 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 31.1 31.9 30.6 2.5 93.8 85.3 28.3 29.3 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 30.1 31.5 30.6 2.8 95.6 88.7 27.6 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 31.6 32.0 30.0 2.6 95.3 87.5 28.7 30.1 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 30.3 31.2 30.9 2.5 87.3 81.7 28.2 28.6 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 31.5 33.0 32.2 2.8 94.6 88.6 29.3 30.4 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 32.2 32.9 30.3 2.3 92.6 84.0 29.4 30.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.5 30.3 32.7 2.5 85.7 80.7 27.3 28.2 29.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 29.4 30.0 29.2 2.6 91.4 84.7 27.3 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 30.0 31.4 33.4 2.9 90.5 84.0 27.7 28.4 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 25.3 26.1 26.9 2.3 92.4 84.6 23.3 24.0 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 30.6 31.8 32.5 2.8 91.7 85.4 28.2 29.3 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 30.1 31.2 32.4 2.3 84.1 79.4 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 29.9 31.3 33.1 3.0 91.5 85.2 27.8 28.7 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 30.1 30.8 31.0 2.6 90.2 83.8 28.0 28.2 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 31.0 32.4 31.6 3.0 93.7 87.4 28.7 29.4 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 30.9 32.0 30.1 2.6 95.0 88.9 28.4 29.6 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 30.2 31.7 32.5 3.2 95.4 88.4 27.8 28.9 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 31.6 32.2 31.3 2.3 90.5 83.3 29.1 30.1 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 24.8 25.7 28.2 2.5 92.1 84.4 22.5 23.7 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 30.2 31.7 33.6 3.0 93.2 85.1 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------