***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.4 32.2 1.7 74.0 67.9 28.0 29.1 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 30.5 30.3 32.3 1.5 69.8 65.1 28.4 29.2 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.7 32.0 1.4 70.8 65.2 28.2 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 24.2 24.2 30.1 1.2 70.4 64.3 20.5 21.5 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 31.9 31.1 30.0 1.2 69.3 64.2 28.6 29.3 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 30.3 30.4 27.6 1.2 70.3 64.1 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.5 32.2 1.7 72.1 66.7 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 19.1 19.5 28.5 1.5 72.0 66.6 16.4 17.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 31.2 30.6 30.5 1.5 70.5 66.0 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 30.7 30.6 29.1 1.5 70.9 66.1 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 31.2 31.8 29.7 1.3 71.1 65.4 27.9 29.0 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.5 31.7 29.7 1.6 73.1 67.5 27.0 28.0 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 31.7 31.7 29.1 1.4 69.7 65.3 28.1 28.9 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.3 30.2 29.7 1.2 67.5 63.2 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 31.5 32.4 30.9 1.6 77.8 68.6 28.8 29.3 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 32.7 31.8 29.4 1.1 68.3 63.3 28.7 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 29.0 29.7 31.7 1.3 64.5 62.6 27.7 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 29.5 29.3 28.2 1.3 70.0 64.4 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.4 32.3 1.5 70.1 64.9 27.6 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.2 25.5 26.0 1.0 66.9 61.9 22.3 23.5 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 30.9 31.0 31.3 1.5 71.1 65.9 28.2 28.8 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.2 31.4 1.1 63.5 61.4 28.4 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.3 31.9 1.5 70.9 65.3 28.2 28.7 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 30.0 29.8 29.9 1.3 69.3 64.6 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 31.3 31.3 30.5 1.7 74.7 67.6 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 31.3 32.4 29.4 1.4 70.7 66.5 27.8 28.9 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 30.5 30.8 31.3 1.8 76.1 68.8 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 31.4 32.0 30.4 1.2 70.4 64.3 28.3 29.2 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 25.1 24.1 27.1 1.1 67.7 62.6 22.0 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.7 32.4 1.6 73.0 66.1 27.7 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------