***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 31.5 32.6 33.1 2.5 83.1 75.2 28.0 29.1 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 31.3 31.9 33.1 2.2 79.9 71.6 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 31.4 32.5 32.7 2.1 78.6 70.8 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 24.5 25.5 31.0 2.0 78.4 71.6 20.8 22.2 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 32.1 33.1 30.7 1.9 76.4 69.6 28.5 29.4 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.5 28.2 1.9 79.8 71.0 27.0 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 31.1 31.8 33.1 2.4 81.8 73.0 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 19.1 19.8 29.1 2.1 79.3 70.8 17.2 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 31.1 32.3 31.1 2.1 78.4 70.6 28.0 28.6 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 30.5 31.4 29.6 2.0 78.2 69.9 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 31.3 32.3 30.2 2.0 76.8 70.2 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.6 30.3 2.2 79.4 72.1 27.3 28.5 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 31.3 32.0 29.7 2.0 76.9 71.3 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 30.6 31.4 30.3 1.7 75.6 66.9 27.6 28.3 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 31.9 32.9 31.9 2.5 86.5 77.0 29.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 32.2 33.0 30.0 1.8 75.9 69.2 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 30.5 30.9 32.4 1.9 76.5 68.8 27.7 28.3 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 29.7 30.7 28.7 1.9 78.5 67.7 26.6 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 30.7 31.4 33.1 2.2 78.9 71.0 27.5 28.6 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 25.7 26.4 26.6 1.7 76.0 66.9 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 31.2 32.2 32.1 2.1 78.1 71.4 27.8 29.1 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 30.9 31.3 32.1 1.6 73.7 67.0 28.0 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 31.2 32.2 32.6 2.1 79.2 70.5 27.7 28.3 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 30.3 31.2 30.4 1.9 78.3 68.2 27.3 28.1 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 31.7 33.3 31.4 2.6 85.2 75.5 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 31.3 32.0 30.0 2.1 78.6 72.1 28.0 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 31.0 32.6 32.3 2.7 86.8 76.6 28.0 28.7 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.6 32.3 31.2 2.0 79.2 71.5 29.1 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 25.3 26.0 27.7 1.8 77.1 66.9 22.4 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.1 33.3 2.3 80.3 72.6 27.8 28.8 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------