***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 31.2 31.7 32.6 2.4 77.5 71.9 28.7 29.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 30.9 31.3 32.6 2.0 71.1 67.6 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.4 32.2 1.9 72.9 68.3 27.8 29.6 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 24.6 24.8 30.5 1.9 74.3 69.3 20.4 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 31.7 32.2 30.3 1.9 74.2 68.4 27.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 30.2 30.4 28.0 1.9 75.5 72.2 26.2 28.6 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 31.0 31.3 32.5 2.1 74.7 69.2 27.9 29.9 30.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 19.3 19.9 28.9 2.2 76.4 71.6 16.1 17.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 31.3 31.6 30.8 2.1 75.0 69.8 27.3 29.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 31.0 31.5 29.3 2.1 74.7 69.6 27.1 28.9 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 31.4 31.7 29.9 2.0 74.8 69.9 26.9 29.4 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 30.4 30.9 30.1 2.4 77.7 73.3 26.4 28.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 31.5 31.9 29.5 2.2 77.0 72.9 27.5 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 30.6 31.2 29.9 1.6 69.0 64.9 27.1 29.2 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 32.2 32.7 31.5 2.4 79.4 75.0 28.4 30.3 32.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 32.2 32.7 29.7 1.9 75.0 69.8 27.7 30.3 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 29.9 30.4 31.7 1.4 65.8 63.1 27.5 29.6 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 29.7 30.3 28.4 1.9 73.0 67.6 26.0 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 30.6 30.7 32.5 1.9 70.4 67.5 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 25.6 26.1 26.3 1.7 72.7 67.5 22.0 23.9 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 31.3 31.9 31.6 2.1 75.1 69.4 27.6 29.5 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.5 31.4 1.2 64.9 61.1 28.0 29.9 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 30.5 30.7 32.1 2.0 70.6 68.0 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.6 30.0 1.8 71.8 67.1 26.7 29.0 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 32.1 32.3 30.9 2.4 77.5 72.6 28.1 30.5 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 30.9 31.3 29.8 2.2 76.2 73.8 27.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 31.2 31.6 31.8 2.6 78.1 73.5 27.5 29.5 30.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 31.9 32.2 30.8 1.9 74.2 70.0 27.9 30.4 32.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 25.2 25.6 27.4 1.8 73.0 67.1 21.2 23.7 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 31.1 31.5 32.8 2.1 73.7 69.3 27.8 29.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------