***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 16.7 17.7 21.7 2.5 98.3 92.1 15.5 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 16.7 17.5 21.5 2.1 93.9 87.2 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 18.7 19.8 21.4 2.1 95.1 87.6 17.7 18.0 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 14.4 15.2 18.8 1.6 92.2 84.1 13.1 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 15.0 16.0 18.6 1.7 93.3 85.2 14.0 14.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 13.8 14.7 16.3 1.5 92.9 84.3 12.9 13.2 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 16.8 17.7 21.8 2.3 96.2 89.8 15.6 16.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 9.6 10.9 16.8 2.0 97.2 91.8 8.8 9.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 16.3 17.2 19.2 2.1 97.1 90.4 15.3 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 16.1 16.9 17.5 1.9 97.2 90.6 15.3 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 15.8 16.7 18.1 1.7 95.5 86.8 14.7 15.3 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 14.0 14.9 17.8 1.9 97.0 91.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 14.9 15.9 16.6 1.4 92.7 84.5 14.1 14.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 16.8 17.4 19.0 1.8 94.5 85.9 15.7 16.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 17.4 18.9 20.2 2.0 96.9 90.1 16.3 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 16.4 17.1 17.5 1.4 91.4 82.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 17.2 17.7 20.6 1.8 91.0 84.0 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 14.7 15.6 16.7 1.8 96.1 88.7 13.1 14.0 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 16.5 17.4 21.5 2.1 94.3 87.4 15.4 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 10.5 11.3 14.5 1.5 95.3 86.3 9.5 10.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 16.1 16.9 20.7 2.1 96.6 89.7 15.1 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 16.1 16.5 20.6 1.7 87.2 82.8 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.6 21.2 2.3 96.0 89.3 14.9 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 16.6 17.2 18.9 1.9 95.9 88.0 15.6 16.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 16.2 17.3 20.1 2.3 98.1 92.3 14.8 15.8 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 14.9 16.1 16.8 1.5 94.3 87.7 14.3 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 16.6 17.8 20.9 2.5 98.8 93.4 15.3 15.9 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 15.0 16.0 19.2 1.6 92.5 83.9 14.0 14.4 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 13.7 14.8 16.0 1.8 96.0 88.8 12.9 13.1 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 16.9 17.7 21.9 2.3 95.5 88.8 15.6 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------