***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.5 20.5 1.3 74.5 67.1 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.3 20.4 1.0 68.2 64.1 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.9 18.9 20.1 0.9 71.1 62.9 17.2 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.5 17.9 0.7 69.3 62.6 12.9 13.2 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.1 14.8 17.4 0.7 67.6 62.1 13.4 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.2 15.7 0.8 72.6 65.0 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.6 20.5 1.2 72.1 65.5 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 9.9 10.3 15.8 1.0 77.7 67.2 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 16.3 16.4 17.8 0.9 73.4 64.8 15.1 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.6 16.3 0.9 75.4 65.5 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 15.9 15.9 17.0 0.8 70.7 64.7 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.3 16.8 1.0 77.2 67.6 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.4 15.8 0.7 67.7 63.3 13.4 14.6 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.7 17.7 0.7 66.7 61.8 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 17.2 17.8 19.0 1.1 78.8 68.5 15.9 16.2 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 16.6 0.6 65.8 62.4 15.1 16.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.9 16.8 19.5 0.8 65.9 60.5 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 14.5 14.9 15.6 0.8 75.7 64.4 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.4 20.3 0.9 67.4 63.5 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.2 13.6 0.6 67.6 60.6 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.2 19.3 1.0 73.0 64.3 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.4 19.4 0.6 61.8 59.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.9 15.8 19.8 0.9 68.4 63.9 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.6 17.7 0.8 71.3 63.5 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.5 18.8 1.3 78.0 68.0 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.2 16.2 0.8 69.5 64.9 14.0 14.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 16.3 16.5 19.7 1.4 77.4 69.1 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.0 15.0 18.3 0.8 70.0 63.7 13.0 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.3 14.9 0.8 73.6 63.8 12.4 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.9 20.6 1.1 72.3 64.8 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------