***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 16.7 16.8 21.3 2.0 79.3 75.7 14.8 15.2 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.6 16.9 21.0 1.4 75.5 70.0 15.0 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 19.0 18.9 20.9 1.5 73.2 71.4 16.9 17.5 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 14.6 14.8 18.6 1.2 73.9 70.2 12.5 13.4 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 15.4 15.4 18.2 1.3 73.1 70.2 13.7 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 14.3 14.5 16.4 1.3 78.2 72.3 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 17.2 17.5 21.2 1.6 77.9 72.2 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 9.9 10.2 16.7 1.7 81.8 76.1 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 16.5 16.7 18.8 1.6 77.0 73.9 14.9 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 16.3 16.6 17.2 1.5 78.5 73.9 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.3 17.8 1.4 74.9 71.5 14.7 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 14.6 15.0 17.7 1.7 81.5 76.3 12.6 13.6 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 15.5 15.8 16.7 1.2 78.1 71.8 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.2 18.6 1.3 74.2 69.6 15.4 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 18.1 18.7 20.0 1.8 82.0 76.5 16.1 17.5 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.7 17.0 17.3 1.1 74.6 69.9 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.4 17.7 20.1 1.0 72.7 65.4 16.0 16.4 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.9 14.9 16.4 1.4 74.9 72.8 13.5 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 16.7 16.9 20.9 1.4 74.4 70.1 14.7 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 11.0 10.9 14.4 1.3 73.0 70.8 9.5 10.4 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 16.4 16.5 20.2 1.7 76.2 74.1 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.2 19.9 0.8 70.5 62.8 14.4 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.2 16.4 20.6 1.5 75.9 72.0 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.6 16.8 18.5 1.4 74.4 71.6 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 16.6 16.9 19.7 1.9 80.3 76.3 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 15.6 15.8 17.0 1.4 78.3 74.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 16.9 17.3 20.6 2.1 81.7 77.6 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 15.5 15.6 19.1 1.3 75.8 71.0 14.4 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.3 15.7 1.3 73.3 71.6 12.4 13.3 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 17.0 17.3 21.3 1.6 76.2 71.8 15.1 15.7 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------