***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 17.9 19.3 23.8 4.8 99.8 98.4 15.5 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 17.7 19.3 23.4 4.6 98.8 96.9 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.7 23.1 23.4 4.5 98.4 97.5 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 15.0 19.5 19.8 3.2 95.4 92.8 12.2 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 15.5 18.0 20.3 3.6 98.0 95.4 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 13.8 15.4 16.8 2.5 92.7 90.8 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 18.4 19.5 23.9 4.9 98.9 97.5 15.2 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 10.3 15.5 18.2 3.8 98.9 97.4 8.1 8.5 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.8 19.8 21.5 4.4 99.9 98.5 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 16.6 19.2 19.3 4.0 99.7 98.3 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 16.3 18.5 19.7 3.5 98.7 96.3 14.2 14.7 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 14.0 17.0 18.9 3.7 98.5 96.9 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 15.6 16.6 17.5 2.4 93.0 90.2 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 17.5 19.8 21.1 4.1 100.0 98.0 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 18.2 19.7 22.0 3.6 97.7 95.5 15.8 16.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 17.5 18.8 18.6 2.7 94.4 91.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.9 20.0 22.5 4.1 98.1 94.9 15.7 16.6 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 14.8 16.8 18.2 3.6 99.0 97.1 12.8 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 17.8 19.0 23.6 4.7 99.4 97.7 14.8 15.7 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 11.1 12.5 15.8 3.3 98.2 95.8 8.7 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.7 19.9 23.0 4.4 99.0 97.8 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 17.2 18.5 22.9 4.3 99.2 96.4 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 17.4 18.6 23.7 5.0 100.0 98.9 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 17.5 20.4 20.9 4.0 100.0 98.0 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 17.3 18.8 22.3 4.4 98.6 97.4 14.5 15.1 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 15.2 16.8 17.2 2.8 93.3 91.6 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 17.7 20.4 22.9 4.6 99.4 98.2 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 15.4 17.2 20.4 3.1 94.8 92.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 14.7 19.3 17.6 3.7 99.2 97.7 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 18.8 19.3 23.9 4.8 99.0 97.8 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------