***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 45.6 50.5 43.7 117.5 66.2 61.1 27.4 37.7 50.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 62.9 64.7 42.1 121.7 69.9 62.5 25.5 40.5 56.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 45.3 58.0 48.3 123.7 69.5 63.4 31.8 38.0 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 54.0 57.1 46.6 125.2 69.1 62.6 44.0 48.4 55.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 36.2 54.9 44.6 124.0 69.7 63.8 24.7 31.4 53.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 52.3 67.6 48.3 117.9 67.9 59.8 29.8 45.2 65.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 42.9 43.9 37.9 110.7 65.2 57.4 28.6 37.1 44.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 83.4 93.1 52.6 123.4 70.5 65.5 51.8 65.0 86.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 66.6 76.5 54.6 138.8 75.5 69.2 30.5 45.8 54.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 70.7 75.7 59.2 130.8 72.5 66.6 44.0 55.2 73.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 49.1 57.1 40.0 118.3 68.3 62.0 28.9 45.5 54.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 49.6 63.6 36.7 114.9 68.5 62.1 28.2 44.8 61.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 38.7 53.0 38.3 118.0 69.1 62.0 26.6 36.2 50.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 90.5 103.8 71.6 138.1 75.7 69.6 46.1 61.5 75.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 36.7 47.4 36.1 120.9 67.5 60.4 15.9 30.4 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 39.1 53.4 41.1 125.1 71.6 63.5 24.9 35.6 50.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 53.7 70.8 41.4 119.2 70.9 61.2 28.4 48.8 62.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 79.5 92.0 71.9 136.9 73.7 68.4 38.1 47.9 64.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 66.5 75.5 46.6 127.2 70.9 64.6 33.3 45.8 69.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 65.6 69.8 68.2 129.1 71.8 66.7 35.4 49.8 63.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 46.3 57.2 51.6 134.1 72.5 67.4 30.2 41.7 52.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 60.7 66.7 46.4 121.3 69.5 62.5 29.9 44.2 66.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 63.1 58.6 53.2 133.6 72.2 66.3 27.3 39.1 49.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 88.3 98.8 67.1 141.2 76.5 69.9 41.3 62.0 77.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 47.7 55.1 45.3 113.8 66.9 58.9 38.1 45.4 55.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 41.2 48.8 31.0 111.8 66.2 60.2 25.3 37.3 48.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 45.5 47.0 43.8 111.1 64.5 57.7 27.9 38.4 49.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 36.4 51.8 41.7 120.9 66.9 60.8 21.8 28.1 48.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 95.0 101.4 73.2 133.7 72.9 68.3 61.2 68.7 83.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 44.1 61.1 41.9 116.5 67.8 60.4 22.2 37.3 60.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------