***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.7 19.9 9.2 137.9 73.5 56.5 0.4 3.3 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.5 18.5 9.3 134.2 75.1 56.1 1.7 5.0 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.7 17.0 9.1 121.3 70.7 54.1 1.2 5.3 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.4 19.4 8.6 113.8 71.2 53.8 1.8 6.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.3 14.5 8.0 105.2 71.5 51.5 1.1 2.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.0 19.4 7.9 88.6 64.7 48.8 2.9 7.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.7 12.2 8.4 121.3 69.7 53.0 0.7 5.3 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.9 9.2 99.0 67.2 52.1 4.0 9.6 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.6 15.6 9.5 115.9 74.7 56.5 2.2 10.3 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.3 19.6 10.7 109.3 70.6 53.8 8.9 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.7 15.5 6.0 86.5 67.8 49.6 3.3 7.4 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.6 12.8 6.1 92.7 67.5 50.8 2.8 6.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.6 13.9 8.0 112.7 72.4 53.5 2.9 4.8 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.5 14.1 12.3 115.8 68.6 53.8 7.3 11.9 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 12.1 6.2 107.0 72.1 52.4 0.2 5.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.4 13.4 7.3 105.0 70.7 53.9 1.1 6.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.9 10.9 9.4 124.5 70.1 54.2 3.0 5.4 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.1 16.7 13.9 121.3 70.6 54.5 4.8 9.5 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.6 20.3 9.3 128.7 74.6 56.5 1.8 3.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.4 13.0 105.9 63.6 51.3 4.0 6.3 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 18.4 9.2 124.4 75.2 55.4 1.1 9.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.3 15.8 10.9 131.1 76.2 55.8 2.6 4.4 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 12.1 8.5 109.6 68.6 53.8 0.8 3.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.4 20.6 12.3 122.0 72.0 55.6 6.8 14.3 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.7 21.6 9.1 125.8 72.9 53.1 1.4 7.5 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 15.5 6.5 112.4 71.2 51.7 0.8 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 11.9 9.1 128.8 72.4 54.9 2.0 5.1 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.8 14.1 7.2 101.8 69.9 52.4 1.2 4.9 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.6 18.8 14.3 116.2 67.6 53.9 4.8 11.8 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.7 7.9 9.1 129.7 73.6 54.9 1.6 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------