***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.5 11.2 6.9 82.9 65.9 50.6 2.9 4.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 16.0 6.0 67.1 62.8 49.6 1.8 5.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.7 12.0 7.1 76.0 62.4 45.8 3.1 5.7 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 22.2 10.0 125.0 74.0 51.3 3.4 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.8 13.8 8.6 116.5 74.6 48.8 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.7 13.3 10.5 121.1 73.4 51.0 0.4 3.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.0 15.6 5.7 67.8 62.8 48.1 1.3 9.4 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.9 30.3 10.0 110.3 71.7 49.5 5.0 13.1 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.7 19.0 9.8 119.1 74.7 53.7 1.1 5.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 33.3 10.9 111.9 72.3 51.5 4.8 8.1 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 23.1 7.8 123.1 75.0 48.7 0.7 7.5 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.4 20.0 7.2 111.2 73.6 49.1 1.1 5.6 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 0.7 10.3 8.2 119.5 75.0 51.0 0.1 1.5 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.9 9.9 75.8 60.6 49.0 2.1 5.8 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.7 16.7 7.2 117.7 74.8 52.5 0.6 5.8 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.6 19.5 8.9 136.3 77.3 52.6 0.8 5.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.5 18.7 5.6 64.5 64.0 49.5 2.9 6.1 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.9 13.1 107.1 69.7 52.6 6.2 12.1 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 18.2 6.4 67.0 62.8 49.8 0.6 4.9 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 18.8 13.1 108.6 69.9 50.6 6.7 10.3 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.1 14.3 9.4 113.8 73.7 53.9 0.5 6.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.7 6.1 59.2 60.2 48.2 2.6 6.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.0 12.0 6.9 67.0 63.0 49.4 1.8 4.1 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 17.2 21.3 11.4 98.8 67.7 53.3 6.6 12.9 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.4 18.1 9.0 109.3 73.7 49.9 1.7 6.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 0.8 22.7 6.1 101.9 72.4 48.4 0.3 1.8 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.1 7.7 89.3 67.0 49.3 3.4 6.6 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.8 17.2 9.2 127.2 75.3 52.7 0.1 3.7 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.2 27.7 13.4 103.6 68.4 51.5 9.5 16.0 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.4 6.2 67.8 61.5 47.4 1.5 5.7 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------