***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.3 23.3 11.8 110.6 71.7 58.2 0.2 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 18.5 20.2 12.9 133.1 74.4 63.5 2.8 6.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.8 12.3 107.1 71.1 55.4 1.2 5.7 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.2 26.9 10.8 102.5 70.4 54.3 1.4 5.0 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.9 14.7 9.1 83.5 62.9 45.5 0.2 4.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.6 13.0 10.9 90.8 65.9 47.0 0.3 5.6 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 10.2 11.6 11.6 122.8 72.8 60.8 0.9 3.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.4 20.5 10.4 90.9 63.3 49.2 2.6 13.3 21.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 20.3 25.2 17.2 147.8 76.1 68.0 0.1 2.2 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.0 16.0 13.1 107.3 66.9 53.4 2.7 7.6 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.0 10.5 8.2 81.2 60.9 45.0 1.0 4.7 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.2 16.2 6.8 76.2 61.1 46.0 0.2 5.2 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.6 15.2 7.7 85.0 67.9 50.5 1.4 5.6 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 28.5 19.6 134.8 73.8 58.9 1.4 8.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.1 11.8 9.5 101.6 72.3 52.7 0.4 3.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.5 9.6 101.5 69.7 56.0 1.0 6.5 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 17.5 26.2 14.3 148.2 78.5 65.0 3.5 6.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.7 25.6 17.1 128.2 72.1 60.3 0.2 11.0 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 20.9 23.3 13.8 134.9 74.5 61.6 1.0 7.8 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 17.7 13.4 102.6 66.3 50.1 2.4 9.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 22.2 28.6 15.1 128.3 73.2 66.5 0.7 5.6 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 17.1 22.4 15.0 148.3 77.0 61.2 2.0 6.7 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.0 26.1 15.5 136.1 74.5 56.6 0.5 8.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 20.8 28.0 18.5 141.5 75.8 64.1 2.0 9.6 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 17.1 10.0 82.2 65.3 48.7 0.3 4.4 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.1 7.0 77.4 60.1 45.7 1.7 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.1 17.0 11.4 97.6 68.1 53.2 0.6 3.8 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.9 15.5 8.9 91.8 69.5 51.8 0.7 4.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.4 41.9 17.7 124.2 71.6 58.4 7.6 15.1 32.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.5 13.4 12.0 118.8 72.4 57.9 1.3 3.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------