***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 14.2 15.9 15.7 137.2 74.6 69.8 0.9 2.7 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 13.0 17.9 13.9 153.9 78.9 70.0 0.6 4.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 21.8 26.5 19.7 186.4 83.4 77.6 1.2 5.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 17.2 25.2 17.2 155.0 75.4 71.1 2.1 5.0 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 21.3 29.1 19.0 185.5 81.3 78.0 0.4 2.9 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 11.4 13.8 19.1 166.8 76.6 72.3 0.6 4.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 12.2 15.8 12.0 129.8 73.0 65.9 1.8 4.7 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 20.9 28.0 23.0 179.4 82.8 77.7 1.6 10.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 14.6 18.5 18.2 160.8 78.5 75.6 0.4 2.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 21.8 27.5 24.5 180.4 81.7 78.0 1.2 5.0 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 15.7 23.1 18.0 176.0 80.1 76.1 0.6 3.3 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.1 19.5 16.5 172.6 80.9 75.8 0.1 4.3 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 8.5 10.8 14.4 153.1 76.3 73.2 0.1 2.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 30.8 40.3 29.8 216.9 87.1 81.2 1.6 13.3 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.5 10.6 13.3 149.9 76.6 68.7 0.6 2.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.9 9.3 15.3 155.1 75.2 71.8 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 19.7 24.1 12.1 137.9 74.8 66.1 2.2 3.4 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 19.0 24.1 27.8 178.7 82.4 76.6 3.4 8.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 15.0 20.1 17.1 179.0 82.4 73.9 1.2 6.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 13.9 20.3 28.6 188.9 84.1 81.0 0.5 5.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 18.0 21.7 18.0 162.7 79.3 76.2 0.2 2.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 18.4 24.1 14.3 149.7 77.0 68.2 4.5 6.6 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 16.2 20.4 22.3 216.6 84.5 79.1 1.2 6.3 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 28.6 36.5 24.8 194.7 84.8 78.1 1.6 8.8 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 19.9 19.5 17.1 140.6 74.3 71.4 0.4 3.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 13.3 18.7 11.5 173.1 79.7 75.7 0.0 1.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 14.4 17.9 15.6 130.0 73.3 68.4 2.2 5.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 13.8 18.8 16.4 155.9 75.6 70.4 0.2 3.1 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 23.1 31.3 27.7 181.6 82.6 77.4 4.0 6.9 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 15.0 20.5 14.6 150.6 77.8 71.1 1.0 4.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------