***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.4 29.9 -0.2 48.2 47.0 28.3 29.4 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 28.1 28.4 29.4 -0.9 36.2 37.0 28.3 28.9 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 28.2 28.2 29.5 -0.9 34.7 35.6 28.1 29.2 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.9 22.4 27.5 -0.2 47.5 47.3 21.8 22.6 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 28.7 28.8 27.6 -1.0 30.5 34.0 28.9 29.8 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 29.0 28.5 25.4 -0.4 43.9 44.2 27.4 28.7 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.8 29.8 -0.3 48.6 45.7 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 16.8 16.9 25.7 -1.1 29.3 32.4 17.0 17.8 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 28.1 28.5 27.8 -1.1 30.6 32.4 28.5 29.4 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.8 28.0 26.2 -1.1 29.8 32.5 28.3 28.9 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 27.8 27.9 27.5 -1.3 24.1 28.6 28.6 29.0 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 27.4 27.2 27.1 -1.3 24.9 29.2 27.8 28.5 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 28.5 28.0 26.8 -1.3 23.9 28.5 28.7 30.0 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 27.6 27.8 27.0 -1.2 28.7 30.4 28.0 28.6 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.2 29.7 -0.2 47.0 47.8 29.5 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 29.1 29.0 27.2 -1.2 26.3 30.3 29.4 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.0 29.4 -0.5 43.0 42.6 27.5 28.1 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 27.0 27.4 25.4 -0.9 34.7 35.8 27.3 27.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 27.6 27.6 29.2 -1.2 29.2 31.7 27.7 28.3 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.6 23.5 -0.6 39.9 41.2 23.2 23.9 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.4 28.6 29.0 -0.7 37.9 39.3 28.4 29.3 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 27.8 28.0 29.0 -0.8 36.3 37.9 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 27.6 27.8 28.8 -1.6 24.7 27.0 27.9 28.6 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 27.5 27.8 27.2 -1.1 30.4 32.9 27.9 28.4 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.5 28.4 -0.2 49.2 48.1 28.7 29.5 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 28.1 28.3 26.9 -1.3 26.0 28.6 28.4 29.4 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.1 29.2 0.0 52.1 50.8 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.4 30.0 28.2 -0.3 43.9 45.0 29.3 30.1 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 22.7 22.6 24.6 -0.8 36.0 37.3 22.5 23.3 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 28.1 28.2 29.5 -0.8 38.4 38.0 27.9 28.9 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------