***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.5 31.0 0.6 59.3 56.0 27.9 29.2 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.2 30.5 0.1 53.7 50.3 28.5 29.2 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.2 30.7 0.0 53.2 50.5 28.4 28.9 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.5 29.2 0.8 61.6 57.9 20.6 21.8 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.7 28.8 -0.1 49.5 49.2 28.7 29.7 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.7 26.6 0.5 59.0 56.3 27.4 28.4 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.2 30.8 0.6 60.1 55.3 27.9 28.9 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.2 27.0 -0.2 47.4 47.8 16.6 17.4 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.9 28.6 -0.2 46.9 47.4 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.6 27.3 -0.2 47.3 47.4 27.9 28.7 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.0 28.4 -0.4 45.1 46.1 28.1 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.1 28.5 -0.3 45.5 46.6 27.6 28.3 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.9 27.7 -0.2 47.5 48.1 28.4 29.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.6 27.8 -0.4 49.2 46.6 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.2 30.2 30.6 1.0 64.0 60.5 29.0 29.6 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.7 29.9 28.3 -0.1 47.2 48.6 29.1 29.9 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.7 30.5 0.5 56.5 53.9 27.4 28.5 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.7 26.6 -0.1 50.2 49.4 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.6 30.3 -0.3 51.1 47.2 28.0 28.6 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.7 24.5 0.2 54.3 52.4 22.9 23.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.3 29.9 0.2 52.6 51.5 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.2 30.1 0.1 53.8 50.3 28.3 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.8 30.0 -0.6 47.3 44.5 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.5 28.1 -0.2 50.3 48.2 27.2 28.5 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.6 29.4 0.8 63.2 57.3 28.3 29.2 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 28.1 28.7 28.4 -0.2 45.9 48.0 28.0 29.0 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.7 30.2 0.8 63.2 58.0 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.2 30.1 29.6 0.8 60.9 58.0 28.7 29.5 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.9 25.6 0.0 51.4 50.4 22.0 22.8 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.3 30.6 0.1 54.5 51.2 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------