***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.6 30.3 -0.3 48.3 47.1 28.5 29.7 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 27.6 28.9 29.6 -1.0 42.9 40.9 27.8 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 27.2 28.3 30.0 -1.0 39.7 40.7 27.4 29.2 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 20.6 22.2 28.5 -0.1 48.4 48.5 21.3 22.3 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 27.7 28.9 28.1 -1.0 37.2 40.2 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.6 25.9 -0.3 45.2 47.1 27.4 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.5 28.8 30.0 -0.4 48.5 46.3 27.7 29.0 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 16.5 17.5 26.4 -1.0 36.7 39.7 17.4 18.1 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 27.6 28.4 27.9 -1.2 34.7 38.6 28.4 29.4 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 27.4 28.3 26.7 -1.1 35.6 39.1 28.3 28.7 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 27.2 28.2 27.7 -1.3 34.2 37.4 28.2 29.0 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 26.7 27.7 27.9 -1.2 34.8 38.5 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 27.7 28.8 27.0 -1.1 35.5 39.9 28.5 30.3 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 27.3 27.6 27.0 -1.4 33.8 35.7 27.5 29.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.7 30.4 29.9 0.0 50.7 50.6 29.4 30.3 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 28.4 29.6 27.5 -1.1 35.3 39.7 29.4 30.4 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 27.1 28.7 29.6 -0.6 47.5 45.1 27.2 29.0 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 26.6 27.1 26.0 -1.0 38.1 40.1 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 26.9 28.0 29.5 -1.4 37.9 37.3 27.2 28.6 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 22.5 24.0 24.1 -0.4 44.8 44.8 23.4 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 27.6 28.9 29.2 -0.8 39.6 42.4 27.8 29.4 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 27.5 28.6 29.3 -1.0 40.6 40.8 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 26.8 27.5 29.1 -1.7 32.1 34.3 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 26.8 27.7 27.4 -1.2 36.0 38.1 27.6 28.6 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.2 29.9 28.7 -0.1 49.8 49.0 28.0 29.9 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 27.8 28.4 27.9 -1.0 35.4 40.7 28.2 29.9 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.9 29.1 29.5 -0.1 51.4 49.7 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 30.8 30.4 28.8 -0.2 46.8 47.8 28.9 30.4 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 21.8 22.8 25.0 -0.9 39.3 40.9 22.5 23.4 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 27.4 28.4 29.8 -0.9 42.4 41.8 27.7 29.1 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------