***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 30.4 30.5 31.1 1.3 69.0 65.1 27.9 29.7 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 29.4 29.7 30.5 0.4 57.5 55.6 28.1 29.0 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.8 30.8 0.6 59.7 57.7 26.8 29.7 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 24.0 24.3 28.4 1.2 69.7 64.9 20.6 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.3 30.9 28.9 0.7 63.4 58.8 27.6 29.9 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 29.6 29.5 26.7 1.2 68.9 64.9 26.2 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 29.5 30.4 30.8 1.1 66.1 62.4 27.5 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.8 18.2 27.0 0.7 61.8 58.3 16.2 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.8 30.4 29.3 0.6 60.5 58.5 26.8 29.5 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 29.1 30.2 27.6 0.7 61.2 58.6 27.1 28.6 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 29.6 30.3 29.1 0.5 59.5 56.0 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.6 29.4 28.5 0.5 60.3 56.3 26.5 28.2 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 29.6 30.4 28.4 0.4 58.1 54.7 27.4 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.4 28.4 0.4 57.5 54.9 26.4 29.0 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 31.5 31.8 30.9 1.1 68.2 63.6 28.0 30.4 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 30.6 31.5 28.7 0.5 60.0 56.2 27.4 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 29.0 29.8 30.4 0.8 62.8 59.8 27.2 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.5 29.1 26.8 1.0 63.5 61.1 25.9 28.1 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.1 30.2 0.1 52.4 51.8 26.9 29.0 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.2 25.0 25.0 1.3 68.1 64.0 22.4 23.8 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 30.0 30.7 30.5 1.0 66.2 62.3 26.5 29.8 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 29.5 29.6 30.0 0.5 57.6 56.5 27.8 29.3 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.4 29.9 -0.2 47.3 48.2 27.0 28.8 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.3 28.7 0.7 60.7 58.0 25.9 28.9 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 31.0 31.4 29.7 1.3 70.2 65.7 27.1 30.0 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.5 28.1 0.4 55.9 54.7 26.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 30.3 30.7 30.4 1.5 71.4 67.3 26.7 29.6 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 31.5 31.8 29.4 1.1 68.0 63.4 28.1 30.3 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.6 26.1 1.1 65.9 62.2 21.2 23.7 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.5 30.1 30.6 0.5 59.2 56.9 27.0 29.2 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------