***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 27.0 27.1 27.3 -2.4 22.6 23.3 27.5 29.6 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 26.3 25.9 27.1 -3.0 15.3 17.6 27.5 29.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 26.3 25.6 26.6 -3.4 10.8 13.8 27.8 29.5 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 20.7 20.6 23.9 -2.7 16.7 18.1 21.6 22.4 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 27.4 27.1 24.6 -3.6 9.1 11.8 28.5 29.7 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 26.8 26.1 22.4 -3.0 10.2 12.4 27.6 28.8 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 26.4 26.7 27.4 -2.4 23.2 24.4 27.4 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 15.8 15.1 22.2 -3.8 5.4 8.1 16.5 18.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 27.0 26.2 25.5 -3.4 9.8 12.1 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 26.9 26.1 23.0 -3.7 6.5 9.4 28.0 29.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 27.2 26.2 24.7 -4.1 5.8 7.9 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 26.3 25.8 23.5 -4.1 4.9 6.9 27.3 28.2 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 27.8 26.7 24.2 -4.3 3.9 5.6 28.8 29.6 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 26.1 25.3 24.9 -3.4 9.6 12.9 27.7 29.1 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 28.4 28.0 27.4 -2.8 14.8 17.4 29.4 30.2 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 28.5 27.4 24.3 -4.1 5.8 7.2 29.2 30.2 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 25.8 25.5 27.0 -2.6 20.8 22.2 26.9 28.5 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 26.2 25.6 22.2 -3.5 9.2 11.4 27.1 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 25.8 24.5 26.8 -3.4 11.0 13.9 27.5 28.4 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 21.9 21.0 20.4 -3.3 9.2 11.5 22.8 24.2 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 27.1 26.7 26.5 -3.1 13.6 15.6 27.9 29.5 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 26.3 26.2 26.8 -2.7 18.4 20.8 27.4 28.5 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 26.8 24.2 26.3 -3.8 7.5 10.5 27.4 28.8 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 26.1 25.5 24.8 -3.5 9.0 11.8 27.3 28.7 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 27.1 26.8 26.0 -2.7 19.4 21.5 27.9 29.9 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 27.5 26.1 23.0 -4.3 3.2 5.8 28.8 29.5 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 26.9 26.6 26.9 -2.2 25.1 26.0 27.3 28.9 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 28.6 28.3 25.2 -3.0 12.8 14.7 29.3 30.3 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 21.5 21.2 21.5 -3.4 9.7 12.0 22.5 23.4 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 26.1 25.7 27.1 -3.0 15.9 17.9 27.3 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------