***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.1 19.3 0.1 53.7 53.5 15.6 16.0 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.7 18.8 -0.2 43.5 44.8 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.9 19.2 -0.2 43.5 43.6 17.7 18.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.7 16.8 0.1 55.7 52.9 13.1 13.6 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.4 16.8 -0.2 43.9 44.2 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.4 14.8 0.1 59.9 55.2 13.1 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.4 19.1 0.0 53.3 51.5 15.4 16.3 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.1 14.6 -0.1 46.7 47.1 8.8 9.1 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.5 16.9 -0.2 45.4 45.0 15.2 15.7 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.5 15.3 -0.1 47.4 47.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.2 16.4 -0.3 39.8 40.6 14.6 15.3 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.0 15.5 -0.3 40.0 42.7 12.7 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.4 14.9 -0.2 42.7 43.3 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.0 16.7 -0.1 43.4 46.0 15.8 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.9 18.7 0.2 58.6 55.6 16.3 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.9 15.7 -0.3 39.2 41.6 15.6 15.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.5 18.6 -0.1 50.6 48.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.0 14.5 0.1 51.0 51.8 13.0 14.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 15.1 15.5 18.7 -0.4 35.7 39.6 15.5 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.1 12.6 0.2 57.9 56.3 9.4 10.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.4 18.3 -0.1 50.6 47.9 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.2 18.5 -0.2 43.5 44.6 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 14.7 14.8 18.5 -0.6 29.6 35.1 14.9 15.1 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.0 16.6 -0.1 45.8 46.9 15.6 16.1 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.8 18.0 0.1 53.6 53.7 14.8 15.8 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.5 14.5 -0.1 45.7 45.3 14.3 14.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 18.7 0.3 57.8 56.9 15.3 16.1 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.6 17.2 0.0 53.6 50.8 14.0 14.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.2 14.0 0.1 52.8 53.1 12.8 13.1 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.2 19.1 -0.2 44.9 45.7 15.7 16.3 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------