***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.5 19.8 0.5 63.3 58.0 15.3 16.3 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.7 19.4 0.3 57.3 55.5 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.5 19.7 0.2 55.9 54.1 17.2 18.2 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.1 17.3 0.6 61.2 59.9 12.2 13.6 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.5 17.0 0.1 52.5 53.3 13.3 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.6 15.3 0.4 57.2 58.8 12.6 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.3 19.7 0.6 62.6 58.4 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.9 14.9 0.1 52.7 52.0 8.5 8.9 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.6 16.9 0.1 54.1 53.1 14.9 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.8 15.5 0.2 54.5 53.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.8 16.6 0.0 49.6 50.6 14.3 14.8 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.3 15.7 0.0 50.4 50.8 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.7 14.7 14.8 0.2 52.7 54.8 13.4 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.3 16.8 0.2 53.7 54.4 15.7 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.9 18.9 0.6 62.7 61.2 15.7 16.1 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.0 15.8 0.2 52.6 53.9 14.6 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.8 19.2 0.5 58.5 58.0 15.6 16.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 13.9 14.6 0.3 57.4 57.2 12.8 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 16.1 16.1 19.2 0.1 53.1 52.8 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.1 12.5 0.5 60.3 59.5 9.2 9.9 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.8 18.5 0.2 56.0 54.6 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.7 19.0 0.3 55.2 54.7 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.4 19.0 -0.1 49.2 50.3 14.6 15.5 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.0 16.7 0.3 55.6 55.5 15.4 15.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.2 18.3 0.5 62.8 58.3 14.5 15.7 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.9 14.8 14.7 0.2 54.9 54.4 14.0 14.8 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.5 19.0 0.6 64.8 59.4 14.8 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.8 17.6 0.5 60.1 59.7 13.0 14.3 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.2 14.1 0.3 57.0 56.7 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.6 19.7 0.4 58.8 55.5 15.2 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------