***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.4 20.1 1.1 69.7 69.2 15.3 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 15.9 16.1 19.6 0.7 62.0 62.3 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 17.7 18.5 19.9 0.7 64.0 62.8 16.9 17.5 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.7 17.2 0.7 66.0 63.7 12.7 13.4 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.1 17.5 0.5 60.1 60.1 13.7 14.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.3 14.9 0.4 60.9 58.9 13.2 13.9 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 16.5 16.6 19.9 0.9 65.7 66.3 15.2 16.4 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 9.1 9.3 15.0 0.5 61.9 59.7 8.1 8.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 15.8 15.9 17.6 0.5 59.0 59.8 15.5 15.7 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 15.6 15.9 15.8 0.5 60.6 59.9 15.2 15.5 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.6 16.8 0.1 51.1 52.1 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 13.7 14.2 16.0 0.4 58.4 56.8 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.0 15.2 -0.1 47.4 48.3 14.1 15.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 16.3 16.8 17.4 0.7 64.1 63.2 15.6 16.1 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.5 19.0 0.4 61.1 59.8 16.3 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.1 16.2 0.0 51.5 51.7 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 16.6 16.9 19.4 0.8 64.4 63.9 15.9 16.5 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.9 15.2 0.8 66.1 64.8 13.3 14.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 15.9 16.1 19.5 0.5 59.4 59.3 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.9 11.3 13.3 1.0 71.6 67.7 9.7 10.2 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.9 15.9 18.9 0.7 63.2 63.2 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 15.7 15.8 19.4 0.7 63.2 62.3 14.9 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 15.4 15.4 19.3 0.3 57.5 57.0 14.7 15.2 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 16.4 16.5 17.4 0.6 62.5 62.4 15.6 16.3 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.2 18.9 1.1 68.3 68.3 14.7 15.5 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.2 14.7 0.1 53.5 53.0 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.3 19.6 1.3 71.7 71.2 14.5 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.1 17.5 0.4 59.7 58.1 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 13.1 13.8 14.6 0.8 67.5 65.7 12.4 12.9 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 16.2 16.6 19.9 0.7 62.6 63.2 14.9 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------