***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.3 15.1 18.0 -1.0 36.9 36.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 14.5 14.5 17.7 -1.2 29.2 30.5 14.7 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 16.4 16.4 17.9 -1.3 26.8 28.3 16.5 17.4 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.2 12.1 15.7 -0.7 33.9 36.4 12.0 13.0 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 12.7 13.3 16.2 -1.0 30.8 32.4 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.5 13.9 -0.2 46.0 45.0 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.4 18.0 -1.0 35.2 35.1 15.4 15.9 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.3 13.8 -0.6 38.1 40.3 8.2 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 14.3 14.9 16.5 -0.8 34.7 35.9 14.9 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.4 14.8 -0.5 39.1 40.6 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.2 16.2 -0.7 35.7 37.3 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.2 14.8 -0.8 31.0 34.6 12.2 12.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.7 15.2 -0.5 39.0 40.9 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 15.0 15.1 16.0 -0.9 32.2 32.7 15.1 15.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.8 16.5 18.5 -0.3 47.2 46.7 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 14.5 14.5 15.5 -0.8 28.5 32.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 15.4 15.8 17.5 -1.0 31.8 32.5 15.8 16.4 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.7 13.9 -0.7 35.7 36.7 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 14.8 14.6 17.6 -1.4 25.1 27.2 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.5 12.2 -0.6 37.9 38.7 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.5 14.6 17.6 -0.8 35.4 35.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.7 17.6 -1.1 29.8 30.9 14.9 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 14.1 14.1 17.4 -1.5 22.6 24.5 14.3 14.7 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.6 14.8 16.1 -0.9 32.6 33.6 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.6 17.1 -0.9 35.5 36.1 14.5 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.6 13.9 -0.6 39.3 38.3 13.5 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.1 17.6 -0.8 39.3 38.8 14.7 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.4 16.5 -0.6 36.4 38.0 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.3 13.3 -0.5 39.1 40.0 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 15.1 14.9 17.9 -1.3 30.0 30.7 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------