***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 48.0 40.8 32.0 95.8 60.2 52.1 26.4 35.7 51.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 47.0 40.3 28.4 88.6 51.8 48.5 28.0 40.1 51.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 48.5 42.5 30.1 96.5 59.7 52.9 28.3 40.2 50.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 58.7 55.5 28.2 89.7 56.7 48.0 44.0 53.8 58.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 37.7 37.2 25.2 84.9 55.3 47.5 24.9 31.4 54.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 51.8 42.5 29.9 81.9 49.8 44.6 29.1 42.6 64.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.4 41.5 29.9 89.2 56.4 47.5 28.6 38.5 56.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 71.0 63.4 28.5 80.2 51.5 45.5 45.5 62.1 89.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 50.6 49.3 28.9 93.4 60.7 54.3 31.5 44.5 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 59.6 55.1 32.4 87.5 56.8 49.8 41.8 52.8 62.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 47.7 47.5 24.2 82.4 55.7 47.3 28.3 43.3 54.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 52.0 45.7 21.6 76.4 50.0 44.8 28.5 45.7 59.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 40.4 36.3 24.6 80.9 52.0 48.2 24.5 36.3 50.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 69.5 67.2 37.0 89.1 55.7 50.5 46.1 58.1 75.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 21.7 36.9 21.0 80.4 52.3 44.6 16.7 32.4 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 41.0 38.7 25.7 86.7 54.8 48.6 24.0 36.3 46.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 51.6 49.5 31.7 90.1 54.4 49.6 28.6 45.0 67.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 59.8 55.8 36.3 87.3 54.3 47.8 38.1 48.8 62.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 49.3 48.8 28.7 91.4 53.0 50.1 33.8 42.3 70.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 34.4 47.3 33.2 74.9 47.2 40.7 34.8 50.0 65.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 45.2 49.8 30.6 98.6 64.7 56.8 29.5 39.6 51.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 53.3 60.5 32.7 97.3 59.5 52.5 30.2 48.3 66.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 44.1 43.7 30.7 93.6 55.8 51.7 28.1 37.3 47.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 70.1 64.5 34.7 93.6 58.7 51.4 35.6 62.7 73.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 50.8 48.5 31.0 86.1 55.4 48.4 37.0 46.8 55.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 41.6 38.6 19.4 78.1 53.4 46.4 24.8 37.3 48.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 46.0 41.1 33.7 90.6 56.8 49.5 27.9 36.8 55.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 41.8 29.9 25.4 87.2 53.6 47.1 22.4 28.1 43.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 75.2 64.8 37.3 84.7 50.9 45.8 59.1 64.7 82.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 43.5 45.6 29.9 94.2 57.2 49.9 23.5 38.1 50.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------