***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.7 12.4 8.3 115.7 71.4 52.9 0.3 3.6 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 19.1 7.1 135.8 75.0 53.8 2.2 4.8 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.9 16.0 8.0 122.0 71.8 52.5 1.3 4.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 19.5 7.0 108.4 70.9 48.2 1.0 9.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 1.5 11.2 6.3 100.6 69.9 45.5 1.0 4.3 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.5 13.7 8.3 97.9 67.3 47.7 1.9 6.3 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.9 11.8 7.3 126.5 72.3 52.5 2.3 5.3 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.5 18.8 7.9 107.4 71.6 48.6 1.6 10.5 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.5 14.5 6.2 91.9 68.1 49.1 1.8 5.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.4 13.7 7.9 96.7 70.3 48.5 4.7 9.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.6 16.7 6.2 103.4 70.6 47.9 2.4 6.8 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.6 13.5 6.4 110.1 71.4 48.9 1.6 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.2 8.2 6.5 91.1 68.6 47.0 0.7 4.8 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.8 13.7 9.9 110.9 68.9 52.0 4.8 11.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.2 11.7 5.0 89.8 69.0 47.7 0.4 3.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.9 12.9 6.4 94.8 69.1 47.9 0.4 4.5 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 14.5 7.8 136.9 75.1 53.8 4.3 6.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.1 14.0 9.5 98.2 66.4 48.1 4.3 8.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.8 15.5 7.0 133.9 74.5 54.2 2.3 3.5 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 2.7 15.4 9.8 101.9 67.1 47.1 3.3 6.3 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.2 13.8 7.0 102.3 71.4 50.3 1.3 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.2 12.9 8.1 143.3 73.5 54.1 4.1 7.3 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.4 11.9 7.6 124.7 73.7 53.0 1.0 3.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.5 20.0 9.2 111.1 67.4 50.3 3.7 12.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.9 21.4 8.3 116.8 72.3 49.3 0.6 7.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.7 10.5 4.8 95.4 70.5 47.3 0.0 4.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.8 9.9 8.7 116.5 70.9 52.5 0.8 4.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.5 13.6 6.2 95.7 69.5 48.0 1.1 3.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 23.1 9.8 96.6 66.2 48.1 4.5 14.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.5 8.0 7.4 131.1 71.8 54.3 2.9 5.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------