***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.1 16.5 10.4 116.1 75.2 54.4 1.4 4.3 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.9 8.7 86.3 63.1 49.6 0.6 8.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 13.2 10.4 119.7 73.3 56.9 3.0 6.9 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.1 16.9 10.5 115.2 71.3 51.9 0.9 8.2 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.0 11.1 9.6 111.2 70.8 52.5 0.6 6.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.5 12.1 10.8 104.2 68.4 51.1 1.4 4.9 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.2 16.3 9.1 89.7 67.0 50.7 0.7 9.0 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.1 21.4 9.8 98.0 67.9 50.6 7.6 13.1 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.7 19.4 11.0 122.1 72.5 58.4 0.6 6.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.5 30.4 11.6 110.8 70.6 54.9 2.9 7.1 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.6 18.1 8.9 108.4 70.7 52.8 0.3 3.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.1 14.6 7.5 94.6 67.5 50.6 2.4 6.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.8 9.2 8.5 96.6 66.7 51.2 0.5 3.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.2 17.5 12.7 108.5 70.6 57.2 1.4 4.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.3 14.2 8.3 118.0 71.5 49.6 0.1 2.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.8 9.1 107.5 70.3 50.4 2.4 5.9 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.4 16.4 9.3 83.0 63.4 52.1 3.2 8.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 17.4 13.4 117.0 72.1 51.9 5.0 10.6 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.8 16.5 9.0 94.7 66.4 51.6 0.9 10.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 14.7 11.1 86.0 62.9 44.4 4.4 9.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.8 14.9 10.5 117.4 71.4 57.4 0.3 3.8 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.0 10.0 94.5 65.3 51.1 2.2 5.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.1 16.2 9.8 106.2 71.7 55.9 2.3 5.4 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.1 29.0 13.2 128.1 74.0 57.5 1.9 12.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.7 18.3 10.6 107.6 73.6 53.2 0.1 3.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.9 21.8 7.8 113.2 71.8 55.3 1.7 6.4 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.6 13.7 11.2 112.9 75.2 54.4 1.6 5.4 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.4 9.6 113.7 68.9 51.0 0.1 4.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 24.0 13.8 111.9 70.2 51.8 3.8 15.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.1 12.1 9.4 100.0 68.5 52.3 1.5 4.4 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------