***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 0.9 1.2 3.7 39.3 36.1 34.6 1.1 2.7 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.2 1.8 3.6 40.8 43.8 35.4 0.7 2.9 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.4 3.5 42.9 39.0 35.8 1.4 4.6 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 2.8 2.9 32.9 43.1 35.6 0.7 6.7 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.7 6.1 4.3 58.9 57.5 46.2 0.3 2.9 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.4 2.6 3.6 43.4 44.4 40.5 0.7 3.9 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.1 3.7 39.3 41.9 35.2 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.4 4.7 54.0 47.5 41.2 3.3 10.8 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.7 1.3 4.2 52.3 50.8 42.5 0.0 1.1 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.1 5.1 5.3 57.2 50.5 42.9 2.6 5.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.5 3.6 57.1 53.2 43.9 0.3 4.1 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.4 3.0 3.3 50.6 47.2 41.7 0.2 4.6 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 2.3 4.7 5.4 87.6 68.2 59.3 0.1 1.6 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 2.2 4.1 5.3 48.1 41.0 34.2 1.4 7.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.6 0.3 1.2 16.1 37.1 30.5 0.1 1.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.1 3.9 61.5 56.9 48.8 1.7 3.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.6 3.9 39.1 41.0 35.1 2.0 2.9 7.2 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.8 6.3 55.9 44.4 38.9 1.4 5.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.7 3.7 3.9 43.1 45.1 36.6 1.3 4.6 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.8 6.5 56.6 48.3 41.5 0.9 5.9 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.0 1.4 3.9 49.8 42.6 39.8 0.1 4.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.5 4.8 49.0 48.5 38.2 1.9 4.6 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.1 1.9 4.0 42.4 42.3 36.5 0.7 5.9 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.8 4.8 4.9 49.9 42.4 36.1 1.3 7.7 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.1 3.7 4.7 50.3 47.7 42.6 0.6 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 1.8 0.6 1.9 43.8 54.2 48.9 0.0 0.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.7 2.3 4.0 38.7 38.6 35.7 1.3 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.0 2.4 30.0 42.9 36.3 0.1 3.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 3.2 6.0 6.0 52.1 43.5 37.3 3.0 8.6 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.1 3.6 40.8 41.8 35.1 2.0 5.6 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------