***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 28.2 28.5 28.8 -1.0 33.0 33.8 28.5 29.3 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.2 28.4 29.1 -0.8 37.0 38.4 28.3 28.8 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.6 29.4 -0.7 38.5 39.1 28.2 29.0 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.8 22.5 27.6 -0.1 50.0 48.8 22.0 22.5 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.1 29.3 28.0 -0.3 44.2 45.4 28.8 29.7 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.8 25.9 0.3 61.7 57.2 27.4 28.6 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 27.8 28.0 28.8 -1.1 31.4 33.5 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.0 26.5 0.3 56.1 55.8 17.1 17.6 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.2 28.5 -0.1 49.0 48.3 28.5 29.2 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 29.1 28.8 27.0 0.2 52.3 52.3 28.3 28.7 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.1 28.2 0.1 51.6 52.4 28.6 29.0 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.6 27.8 0.4 57.3 56.7 27.8 28.4 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.1 30.1 27.4 0.2 55.0 53.9 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.6 27.9 0.0 50.5 50.1 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.5 29.4 0.1 55.4 52.8 29.6 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.7 30.7 28.0 0.3 56.5 55.1 29.4 30.3 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 27.3 27.7 28.8 -0.7 34.4 38.6 27.7 28.1 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.1 27.9 26.3 0.2 52.0 52.7 27.3 27.8 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.2 29.4 -0.5 42.7 42.5 27.8 28.3 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.7 24.2 0.4 59.1 56.3 23.2 23.9 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.7 28.6 29.0 -0.6 38.7 40.3 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.2 28.8 -0.6 39.5 40.6 27.9 28.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.6 29.7 0.0 49.2 50.1 28.0 28.6 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.5 28.0 0.0 50.4 49.8 27.7 28.5 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 28.4 28.7 27.5 -0.9 33.2 36.4 28.7 29.5 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.6 29.9 27.5 0.4 59.7 57.8 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 28.1 28.1 28.0 -0.9 32.5 35.0 28.2 28.8 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.4 30.3 28.6 0.3 58.0 55.0 29.4 30.1 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.3 25.3 0.1 50.8 51.7 22.5 23.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 27.9 28.2 29.0 -1.0 34.6 35.6 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------