***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 27.2 28.2 28.8 -1.5 34.0 36.8 28.1 29.4 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 27.8 28.6 29.2 -1.2 37.3 40.6 28.0 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 27.4 28.2 29.4 -1.1 38.6 40.3 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.5 28.0 -0.5 49.9 47.2 20.4 21.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 28.0 29.4 28.0 -0.7 47.9 45.2 28.9 29.5 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.5 26.0 0.1 55.6 53.7 26.9 28.3 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 27.5 27.7 28.8 -1.4 34.7 37.8 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.7 26.7 0.0 53.7 51.4 16.6 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 27.6 28.9 28.1 -0.6 49.2 45.4 28.2 28.9 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.5 28.7 27.1 -0.3 52.9 48.8 28.0 28.6 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.9 28.1 -0.1 51.7 49.8 28.4 28.9 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.5 28.0 0.1 53.0 52.3 27.6 28.2 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.2 27.1 -0.1 51.7 51.4 28.7 29.1 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 27.1 27.8 27.4 -0.8 39.5 43.6 27.7 28.8 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.2 30.0 29.2 -0.1 56.6 51.1 28.8 29.6 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.7 30.3 27.9 0.0 52.0 52.0 29.1 30.2 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 27.2 27.9 28.8 -1.2 39.7 41.0 27.3 28.6 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 26.4 27.7 26.3 -0.4 50.8 47.8 26.9 27.6 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 27.4 27.8 29.4 -1.0 39.6 42.0 27.5 28.8 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.8 24.2 -0.1 53.2 51.3 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 27.5 28.3 28.7 -1.1 40.2 40.9 27.7 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.7 28.6 -1.2 38.8 40.8 28.0 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 27.2 28.2 29.4 -0.8 42.4 43.9 27.8 28.4 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 26.9 28.3 27.6 -0.7 44.7 44.7 27.1 28.6 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 27.9 28.3 27.4 -1.3 37.0 39.1 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.6 27.9 0.3 54.9 55.9 28.1 29.3 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 27.1 28.0 28.0 -1.4 36.2 37.5 27.9 28.6 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.3 29.9 28.7 0.0 55.4 51.5 28.5 29.8 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.9 25.3 -0.4 50.9 47.6 22.2 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 27.7 28.0 29.1 -1.3 34.7 38.5 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------