***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 30.6 28.9 28.6 -1.2 40.1 38.5 28.8 30.0 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.0 28.9 -0.9 43.3 42.3 28.0 29.5 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 30.0 29.0 29.3 -0.8 43.9 42.4 28.3 29.3 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.1 27.9 -0.2 49.1 48.3 21.7 23.3 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.6 29.9 27.9 -0.3 48.2 47.0 29.1 30.1 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.8 25.9 0.3 56.8 54.1 27.7 29.3 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.1 28.6 -1.2 39.3 39.1 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.8 18.5 26.5 0.3 54.2 53.0 17.5 18.5 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.5 28.0 -0.3 49.5 47.1 28.8 29.5 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.6 26.9 0.1 52.0 50.6 28.1 29.5 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.7 27.9 0.2 54.2 52.4 28.1 29.6 31.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.6 27.9 0.4 55.5 53.7 27.8 29.1 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 30.7 30.5 26.9 0.1 50.5 50.9 29.2 30.4 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.7 29.1 27.2 -0.4 44.1 45.7 27.7 29.4 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.1 30.8 29.1 0.0 53.5 51.0 29.4 30.7 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 31.3 31.3 27.8 0.3 54.0 53.3 29.2 30.9 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.3 27.9 28.6 -0.9 40.3 42.4 27.7 28.9 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.9 28.3 26.1 0.0 50.2 48.8 27.4 28.3 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.7 29.2 -0.7 45.2 44.0 27.4 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 25.1 24.7 24.0 0.2 53.6 51.6 23.8 24.6 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 30.4 29.2 28.6 -0.8 42.7 42.6 28.8 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.7 28.5 -0.9 39.2 42.0 27.6 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.6 28.8 29.3 -0.3 47.3 46.7 27.8 29.0 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.6 27.5 -0.3 47.6 46.4 27.8 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.2 29.3 27.2 -1.0 41.9 40.4 28.8 30.2 31.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 30.1 30.3 27.9 0.5 57.2 55.2 28.8 29.7 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 27.8 28.7 27.8 -1.1 40.8 39.4 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.8 31.0 28.6 0.2 53.7 52.5 29.5 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 22.6 23.8 25.1 -0.1 48.5 47.9 22.8 23.9 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.7 28.4 28.9 -1.1 41.8 40.2 28.0 28.9 31.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------