***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.0 29.4 -0.5 46.2 45.4 27.4 29.0 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.9 29.7 -0.4 47.4 46.3 27.5 29.1 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.2 30.0 -0.2 49.9 48.9 26.9 29.3 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 23.5 23.7 28.4 0.7 59.1 59.0 20.3 23.2 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 30.1 30.2 28.9 0.5 56.6 56.3 27.3 29.8 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.8 30.2 27.2 1.2 66.6 65.4 26.3 28.3 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.3 29.3 -0.7 42.8 43.0 27.4 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 17.9 18.9 27.4 1.1 63.5 62.8 15.6 17.6 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 29.7 30.0 29.5 0.6 60.3 58.4 26.9 29.4 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 29.6 30.0 27.9 0.9 60.9 60.3 26.7 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 29.8 30.0 29.3 0.9 60.5 60.8 26.8 29.5 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 28.8 30.1 28.9 1.3 64.8 64.3 26.1 28.4 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 30.0 31.3 28.8 1.1 66.2 63.3 27.1 29.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 28.7 29.1 28.6 0.5 59.9 57.3 27.2 28.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 31.2 31.6 30.6 0.9 63.1 61.7 27.8 31.0 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 31.2 32.1 29.2 1.1 67.0 63.6 27.9 31.0 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.6 29.2 -0.4 48.9 46.9 27.3 28.7 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.1 27.1 0.9 61.1 60.9 25.9 28.4 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.9 30.0 -0.1 52.8 50.0 27.1 28.7 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 24.3 25.5 25.3 1.2 65.8 63.7 22.0 24.0 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 29.6 29.3 29.9 0.0 51.7 51.7 26.8 29.3 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.9 29.2 -0.3 50.7 47.6 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.9 29.1 30.4 0.6 61.1 57.5 27.0 28.5 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 28.6 29.3 28.8 0.7 60.2 58.4 26.5 28.2 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.8 29.1 28.4 -0.2 47.4 48.6 26.9 29.4 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 30.6 31.1 28.7 1.4 70.6 66.7 26.4 29.2 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.5 28.9 28.8 -0.4 46.7 47.2 26.9 29.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 31.1 31.4 29.7 1.1 65.7 64.0 27.8 30.9 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 24.3 24.4 26.2 0.9 61.3 60.0 21.4 24.0 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.3 29.6 -0.6 45.6 44.6 26.8 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------