***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 30.1 27.9 28.2 -0.9 42.7 40.3 27.6 29.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 29.4 27.9 28.7 -0.8 44.7 44.2 27.1 29.1 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.7 28.3 28.7 -0.7 45.1 43.4 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.4 26.0 -0.4 48.5 45.8 21.0 22.7 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.3 27.1 -0.6 45.9 44.8 28.5 29.7 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.5 27.9 24.5 -0.5 42.7 44.7 27.1 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 29.1 27.9 28.3 -1.1 41.7 41.5 27.1 28.8 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.8 25.3 -0.1 53.4 51.2 16.0 17.6 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.4 28.3 -0.1 53.6 51.6 28.0 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.7 26.2 -0.1 52.9 51.8 27.2 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.5 27.6 -0.4 51.3 47.6 28.0 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.4 26.4 -0.2 51.7 50.0 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.9 29.2 26.8 -0.4 44.6 45.7 28.3 29.5 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.8 28.3 0.5 61.3 57.8 27.2 28.8 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 31.0 30.1 28.7 -0.5 45.2 45.3 29.1 30.8 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.0 27.0 -0.4 47.5 47.1 29.1 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 28.4 27.9 28.5 -0.5 49.2 46.6 26.7 28.0 30.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 28.5 28.8 25.6 0.3 57.6 55.5 26.8 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 29.0 28.4 29.0 -0.4 48.9 48.3 27.1 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 24.1 24.7 23.5 0.2 56.0 54.3 22.7 23.8 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.5 28.8 28.7 -0.6 48.4 45.1 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 29.1 29.3 28.7 -0.1 52.7 50.5 27.2 28.7 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.3 29.5 0.4 57.4 56.8 27.5 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.1 28.0 0.3 57.7 55.5 26.8 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 29.9 28.3 27.1 -0.9 44.5 41.3 28.0 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.7 25.5 -0.6 41.3 42.8 28.3 29.1 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 29.2 28.1 27.6 -0.8 44.6 42.0 27.3 28.9 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.6 30.2 27.4 -0.3 48.4 47.8 29.5 30.3 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 23.8 23.7 24.8 0.2 56.1 54.2 22.2 23.5 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 29.2 27.9 28.5 -0.9 43.1 42.0 27.1 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------