***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 15.4 15.5 18.4 -0.5 35.6 38.0 15.5 16.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.8 15.7 18.3 -0.3 39.5 42.3 15.2 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 17.3 17.8 18.8 -0.3 38.4 41.7 17.6 18.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.7 16.6 0.1 48.9 50.8 13.1 13.7 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.3 16.7 -0.1 45.7 47.4 14.1 14.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.5 14.8 0.3 59.8 57.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 15.2 15.5 18.3 -0.5 30.9 36.2 15.5 16.4 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.3 9.2 14.7 0.3 59.3 57.4 8.7 9.2 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.6 16.9 0.1 50.2 51.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.7 15.5 0.2 56.5 55.2 15.0 15.6 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.4 16.6 0.1 53.0 52.8 14.6 15.3 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 13.5 13.6 15.7 0.3 58.4 56.7 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.6 15.0 0.1 53.9 53.7 13.9 14.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.4 16.8 0.1 57.2 53.0 15.6 16.4 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.9 16.9 18.3 0.1 51.7 52.1 16.3 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.0 16.0 0.2 54.7 55.0 15.6 15.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.9 16.4 18.2 -0.1 42.7 45.4 16.1 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.3 14.9 0.3 59.0 56.3 13.1 14.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 15.1 15.6 18.5 -0.1 44.3 45.5 15.5 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.1 12.7 0.3 60.6 57.8 9.4 10.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.3 18.1 -0.2 43.0 43.3 15.1 15.6 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.3 18.2 -0.2 42.7 44.7 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.5 18.6 0.1 52.8 51.7 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.2 16.8 0.2 53.9 53.5 15.7 16.2 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.2 17.2 -0.4 36.8 40.0 14.7 15.8 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.6 14.6 0.3 57.8 56.5 14.3 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 14.9 15.7 17.7 -0.4 37.5 39.8 15.1 16.0 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.7 17.3 0.2 54.3 54.5 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.3 14.1 0.2 53.9 53.7 12.9 13.1 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 15.4 15.4 18.4 -0.4 34.5 38.5 15.4 16.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------