***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.6 18.2 -0.8 40.2 41.8 15.5 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.4 15.1 18.0 -0.7 41.0 42.8 14.9 15.6 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 17.1 17.8 18.6 -0.7 40.3 42.6 17.4 18.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.2 13.1 16.4 -0.5 44.7 45.3 12.3 13.5 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 13.5 14.0 16.3 -0.5 45.5 44.9 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.7 13.6 14.7 -0.1 53.8 51.0 12.9 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.0 15.4 18.1 -0.9 36.0 40.3 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.7 14.5 -0.1 53.0 51.5 8.5 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.5 16.4 -0.4 46.4 46.5 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.7 15.1 -0.2 49.5 49.1 14.8 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 14.3 15.4 16.1 -0.3 52.3 48.3 14.5 15.2 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.7 15.3 -0.1 53.7 50.9 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.3 14.3 -0.2 49.5 47.8 14.0 14.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.0 16.4 -0.5 43.6 45.8 15.6 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.7 16.4 18.0 -0.2 49.5 48.8 16.0 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.1 15.4 -0.1 52.6 49.4 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 15.8 15.9 17.9 -0.6 41.1 43.4 15.6 16.6 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.7 14.5 -0.2 46.5 48.3 12.8 13.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 14.7 15.5 18.2 -0.6 41.7 43.9 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.9 12.1 -0.1 51.6 50.3 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.2 17.7 -0.6 43.2 43.2 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 14.3 14.7 17.8 -0.8 39.7 41.9 14.6 15.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 14.3 14.8 18.3 -0.5 43.1 45.9 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.1 15.7 16.3 -0.4 45.1 46.2 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.6 16.9 -0.7 40.4 43.4 14.3 16.0 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.0 14.8 14.3 0.0 52.4 51.8 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.2 17.5 -0.7 40.5 42.9 14.8 16.0 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 13.5 14.4 16.9 -0.2 49.2 48.4 13.6 14.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.2 13.0 13.8 -0.3 48.3 47.7 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.6 18.2 -0.8 39.1 41.4 14.8 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------