***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 14.9 15.8 18.6 -0.4 38.0 43.7 15.5 16.8 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 14.6 16.2 18.4 -0.2 45.4 46.1 15.2 16.4 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 16.9 17.7 19.0 -0.3 42.1 45.0 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.8 14.1 16.8 0.1 50.0 49.6 12.8 14.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.9 16.7 0.0 50.2 48.9 13.8 14.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.2 15.2 0.5 64.4 56.5 12.9 13.5 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.9 18.5 -0.4 39.5 42.7 15.6 16.3 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.0 14.9 0.3 56.5 54.2 8.7 9.8 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.3 16.8 0.0 51.8 49.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.7 15.5 0.2 55.3 52.0 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.4 16.1 16.5 0.2 54.7 52.5 15.0 15.4 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.3 15.7 0.3 55.4 54.3 13.0 13.9 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 14.7 0.2 51.6 51.3 14.6 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 15.3 16.7 16.6 0.0 47.9 47.7 15.8 16.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.4 17.4 18.3 0.2 56.7 51.9 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.7 15.9 0.3 55.8 53.6 15.5 16.2 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.6 18.3 -0.1 46.7 46.8 16.4 16.7 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.8 14.8 0.2 57.8 51.0 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.1 18.6 -0.1 48.6 47.4 15.7 16.3 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.9 12.5 0.3 57.9 52.9 9.6 10.5 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.4 18.0 -0.2 43.3 45.7 15.1 15.8 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.5 15.8 18.1 -0.3 44.1 44.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 15.0 16.4 18.7 0.0 52.5 49.1 15.0 16.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 15.3 16.9 16.6 0.1 53.1 49.1 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.0 16.3 17.2 -0.2 45.5 46.3 14.9 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.2 14.9 0.5 60.3 57.9 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.8 17.8 -0.3 43.4 45.6 15.1 16.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.8 17.4 0.2 56.4 52.4 14.3 14.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.5 14.0 14.1 0.1 56.2 49.7 12.9 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 15.0 16.3 18.6 -0.3 41.4 43.8 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------