***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.9 19.2 0.0 52.3 50.2 15.4 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.2 18.9 0.1 56.3 53.6 15.4 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.8 18.3 19.6 0.3 59.4 55.6 17.1 17.5 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.7 17.5 0.7 64.0 61.4 12.8 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.1 17.8 0.5 61.4 59.7 13.7 14.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 14.4 14.6 15.8 0.9 71.1 67.7 13.0 13.6 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.1 18.9 -0.2 51.1 48.6 15.6 16.0 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 9.6 10.0 15.6 0.9 71.6 66.1 8.4 8.9 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.5 18.0 0.7 69.5 63.2 15.4 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.5 16.4 0.9 69.6 65.0 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.4 17.7 0.8 68.0 64.1 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.7 16.8 1.0 71.7 66.4 12.5 13.7 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 15.7 16.1 16.3 0.9 71.5 67.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.0 17.0 17.8 0.8 70.7 66.0 15.6 16.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.2 18.2 19.3 0.7 64.3 62.4 15.9 16.8 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.9 17.2 0.9 70.5 66.3 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.8 18.8 0.2 59.1 55.9 15.9 16.6 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.0 15.8 0.9 71.4 66.3 12.7 14.5 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.1 19.2 0.3 60.5 57.2 15.3 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.2 13.7 0.9 73.3 67.4 9.2 10.5 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.2 19.1 0.4 61.3 57.2 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.0 18.9 0.2 61.1 56.5 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.2 19.5 0.8 68.0 63.9 14.4 15.5 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 16.7 16.8 17.8 0.8 72.8 65.9 15.6 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.7 18.2 0.1 53.5 52.2 14.6 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.8 15.7 0.9 70.2 65.9 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.5 18.6 0.1 53.2 51.3 14.1 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.5 18.2 0.9 66.6 64.2 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.8 14.1 15.1 0.9 70.7 66.0 12.4 13.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.2 19.1 0.0 52.8 50.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------