***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.5 17.5 -0.8 42.8 39.7 14.8 15.8 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 16.3 15.8 17.8 -0.3 47.2 47.3 14.9 16.0 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.7 16.8 18.0 -0.5 43.1 42.7 16.4 17.3 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.0 15.8 0.0 53.0 51.0 12.2 13.0 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.2 13.6 16.2 -0.4 44.1 44.0 13.2 13.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.0 12.6 13.6 -0.2 45.3 45.5 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 16.0 15.5 17.7 -0.7 42.9 42.6 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 8.5 8.5 13.9 0.1 53.5 53.7 8.0 8.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.1 16.6 -0.1 49.7 50.2 14.5 15.1 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 15.2 15.0 14.9 0.1 51.7 52.9 14.2 15.0 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 14.8 14.4 16.1 -0.2 47.0 47.6 14.2 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 12.9 12.8 15.0 0.0 50.9 51.0 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 14.0 13.7 14.8 -0.3 45.1 44.9 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.0 15.9 16.6 0.3 53.7 56.0 15.0 15.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 16.4 16.1 17.6 -0.3 47.4 45.0 15.9 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.1 15.5 -0.3 45.7 45.5 14.5 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 16.6 16.5 17.8 0.0 52.6 52.4 16.1 16.3 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 13.5 13.5 14.5 0.3 55.1 55.6 12.6 13.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 15.9 15.6 17.9 -0.2 48.3 49.1 14.9 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 9.3 9.2 12.5 0.2 54.5 55.0 8.3 9.1 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.3 14.5 17.6 -0.5 43.7 43.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 15.5 15.4 18.1 0.1 53.7 53.3 14.7 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 15.2 14.9 18.1 0.1 52.2 53.7 14.4 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.4 16.7 0.2 53.1 54.4 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.5 14.8 16.6 -0.8 41.1 38.2 14.5 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.4 13.7 -0.4 39.4 41.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.0 17.0 -0.8 43.3 40.0 14.5 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.0 16.4 -0.1 51.1 50.0 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 13.0 12.8 13.5 0.1 50.7 51.2 12.0 12.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.3 15.5 17.8 -0.6 43.7 42.3 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------