***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 22.8 27.1 21.5 56.5 34.8 31.2 26.3 35.7 51.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 21.7 36.7 20.0 53.7 35.0 31.3 32.0 44.1 54.9 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 24.5 29.5 21.5 57.6 35.6 30.9 28.3 41.7 55.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 34.5 55.5 24.8 72.2 52.2 38.7 47.9 55.5 59.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 22.0 32.1 22.3 68.0 49.3 37.7 24.9 33.3 54.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 28.7 61.9 33.8 91.7 56.8 47.3 33.2 45.4 65.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 23.3 29.1 18.8 50.6 30.9 29.2 29.5 39.8 56.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 40.1 62.8 28.3 76.4 48.0 40.4 45.4 65.1 91.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 25.6 41.0 22.3 63.7 45.0 34.8 33.3 44.6 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 32.0 47.5 27.2 68.2 43.4 36.4 41.8 53.8 62.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 26.3 43.2 22.7 73.7 49.9 40.7 27.5 43.3 54.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 29.3 47.5 23.6 79.3 51.6 42.9 27.8 45.7 60.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.3 36.2 25.5 82.5 49.7 44.0 24.5 36.3 51.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 30.1 46.1 26.4 54.2 33.9 29.5 46.0 62.3 80.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 21.0 36.8 23.3 78.1 53.0 41.0 21.3 32.3 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 23.1 37.4 24.0 79.7 51.6 43.3 24.0 36.3 42.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 29.2 27.5 19.8 51.5 31.8 30.3 28.4 49.1 67.8 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 32.9 43.6 31.6 68.4 43.3 36.0 36.6 50.5 65.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 22.1 36.6 21.1 55.7 36.9 31.7 34.3 48.6 70.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 31.4 42.3 34.9 76.1 42.5 39.5 34.8 48.8 65.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 28.7 36.0 21.4 61.7 40.6 32.4 31.6 40.4 52.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 32.0 41.8 23.2 57.5 37.1 32.0 37.5 52.5 64.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 27.9 32.1 21.3 54.1 35.0 30.3 31.5 44.1 51.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 32.4 44.1 26.3 61.0 38.6 32.5 35.6 63.2 77.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 27.4 40.8 23.7 59.8 38.2 31.9 37.0 47.4 55.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 47.7 45.5 26.3 103.8 59.8 53.2 24.8 42.3 55.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 20.8 32.5 22.5 54.5 32.8 30.2 32.5 39.6 60.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 22.3 30.9 26.0 81.8 55.9 41.8 22.0 28.0 49.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 42.9 63.6 34.3 71.0 42.6 37.1 57.9 68.2 82.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 21.2 27.5 20.7 54.4 33.6 30.6 27.0 41.2 50.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------