***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.3 12.5 6.9 73.0 62.6 44.3 0.0 5.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.2 16.4 6.5 70.1 62.1 43.0 2.2 4.8 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.7 15.2 7.3 74.9 64.0 43.8 0.9 5.5 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 22.3 6.9 71.0 66.2 44.3 4.5 10.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.5 13.8 6.4 74.5 67.1 45.7 1.3 7.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.1 14.9 8.1 75.3 64.6 43.2 2.7 8.6 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.4 10.5 6.5 73.5 62.8 44.1 2.3 5.1 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.5 18.2 7.8 75.8 60.9 45.7 9.4 15.3 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.8 14.7 6.4 68.1 62.0 44.4 4.9 11.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.7 14.3 7.5 67.5 59.2 43.8 9.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.8 18.4 6.1 75.4 65.4 45.5 4.1 11.6 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.9 11.9 6.3 75.4 65.1 45.6 1.9 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.3 6.8 6.8 74.9 65.7 45.5 1.6 4.8 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.2 8.6 66.6 55.0 40.0 5.4 12.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.6 14.4 6.3 75.0 68.8 45.9 1.6 7.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.1 12.1 6.3 72.9 64.8 43.2 2.4 7.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.2 11.0 7.0 73.9 62.7 44.4 2.4 6.9 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.5 13.5 8.6 65.7 56.6 42.5 5.1 12.7 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.3 9.3 6.6 69.2 60.7 42.6 2.3 4.9 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.8 8.5 9.6 72.2 54.5 44.1 3.7 6.9 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.5 17.3 6.9 73.1 63.9 43.9 2.1 9.1 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.4 10.7 7.6 72.2 60.5 44.2 4.1 7.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.2 6.5 7.0 69.2 58.5 41.3 0.9 4.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.4 19.4 8.2 70.0 59.0 42.0 5.7 12.1 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.1 19.0 6.7 66.3 63.3 42.8 1.6 12.3 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.2 6.0 84.3 68.4 47.0 0.4 5.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.7 6.7 67.1 61.5 43.1 1.3 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 11.1 7.0 75.5 67.4 45.8 1.1 4.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.4 19.5 9.3 67.1 54.4 42.4 5.8 17.1 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.6 7.6 6.8 71.6 62.2 43.1 3.5 5.7 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------