***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.4 8.0 75.7 58.0 45.7 0.2 2.4 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.7 8.9 7.6 75.8 61.5 46.5 1.4 5.6 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.1 10.2 7.6 72.0 59.2 44.8 0.3 4.5 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.5 27.3 9.5 103.7 69.9 51.3 0.8 5.0 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.8 11.6 8.4 87.5 65.7 48.8 0.1 4.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.0 17.1 11.6 114.5 69.8 54.2 0.9 5.4 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.5 7.0 67.9 58.6 46.4 2.1 8.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.3 22.0 9.8 95.5 63.9 48.5 3.7 13.2 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.1 8.3 81.1 62.8 46.2 0.0 1.6 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.5 11.6 9.3 84.9 61.6 46.1 0.7 7.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.7 15.5 8.3 86.2 61.9 47.0 0.6 3.6 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.3 8.3 95.1 65.1 49.3 0.1 4.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.9 16.5 8.5 105.9 70.3 53.7 0.8 5.6 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.2 10.8 9.3 69.0 54.6 44.0 1.7 9.4 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 12.3 9.4 112.0 73.9 49.5 0.8 4.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 10.0 8.9 107.8 68.4 52.9 0.7 3.5 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.8 15.2 7.0 66.5 58.3 45.6 4.1 8.3 20.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.4 10.8 85.6 57.9 46.2 1.7 7.4 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.7 8.2 80.4 62.5 46.4 1.7 6.7 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.4 12.1 101.1 64.7 48.2 4.0 10.4 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.6 13.3 8.0 81.4 61.8 44.1 0.6 6.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.4 25.5 9.0 86.4 66.1 47.8 4.4 10.2 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.9 8.1 72.7 57.6 46.4 1.2 5.3 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.4 9.1 72.9 55.2 44.6 0.7 8.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.1 17.2 10.2 94.2 66.0 47.4 0.1 10.1 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.5 25.4 11.0 135.1 77.8 60.5 1.5 7.9 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.5 6.6 9.0 77.6 58.7 43.7 1.7 3.6 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.9 22.5 9.9 118.8 74.1 52.5 2.7 5.6 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 21.9 12.2 93.5 60.0 46.8 10.0 14.6 28.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.0 7.7 73.8 60.1 47.1 4.3 5.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------