***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 0.7 0.8 0.9 9.0 31.8 23.2 1.0 2.7 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 0.8 0.5 0.9 8.4 28.8 21.8 0.7 4.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 1.1 1.0 0.9 9.6 31.5 23.5 1.1 5.6 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.9 2.6 32.0 45.8 35.9 1.7 6.7 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.5 1.8 2.2 27.9 44.0 35.4 0.4 2.9 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 5.4 7.5 6.5 85.8 66.8 54.2 0.5 3.3 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 0.6 0.3 0.8 7.4 26.4 20.7 1.1 3.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.3 4.5 53.4 51.1 40.7 3.4 8.7 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 0.5 0.8 2.1 24.7 42.1 32.3 0.1 1.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.0 3.7 38.6 45.5 36.1 1.3 4.4 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.9 2.6 3.2 49.4 52.0 41.5 0.0 2.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 6.4 7.5 3.9 62.4 56.6 45.6 0.0 2.4 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 1.8 2.3 4.5 66.0 61.9 51.4 0.0 0.8 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 1.6 0.9 1.5 12.1 30.5 24.0 1.1 6.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.8 3.3 2.3 36.5 53.4 40.9 0.5 1.7 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 4.5 3.3 3.6 53.2 55.8 45.0 0.5 2.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 0.5 0.0 0.9 8.7 25.7 19.8 2.0 4.0 10.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.3 3.8 34.6 42.0 32.6 1.0 5.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 1.2 1.0 0.9 8.8 29.8 22.6 1.1 5.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 4.7 5.2 55.0 49.6 39.3 1.0 4.7 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.5 17.0 41.4 30.1 0.0 2.3 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 0.5 0.1 0.7 6.4 26.2 19.5 1.2 4.1 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 1.2 0.1 0.9 8.3 28.4 22.1 0.7 6.1 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 1.4 1.2 1.9 18.0 34.8 26.4 0.9 5.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 1.7 0.8 1.1 10.3 34.4 27.9 0.7 5.6 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 1.6 4.8 4.3 96.6 70.8 58.8 0.0 0.0 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 1.7 1.8 1.0 9.1 31.0 24.2 2.7 6.6 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.5 3.9 3.2 43.4 52.7 41.6 0.1 2.8 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 2.9 5.1 3.6 33.6 40.7 31.1 3.3 7.6 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 1.3 2.0 0.9 8.5 29.7 22.7 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------