***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 30.6 31.7 32.5 3.0 92.1 88.9 28.6 29.2 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 30.4 31.5 32.3 2.8 90.2 85.8 28.4 28.9 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 30.2 31.5 32.6 2.9 91.2 88.1 28.3 29.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 24.1 25.1 30.3 2.9 92.6 88.8 21.9 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 31.2 32.3 30.6 2.7 90.9 86.9 28.8 29.5 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.6 29.4 26.1 0.7 67.5 62.4 27.3 28.4 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 29.9 31.1 32.3 2.8 90.0 86.2 28.1 28.8 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 18.5 19.4 27.9 1.9 84.4 79.7 17.1 17.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 30.4 32.0 31.3 3.0 93.4 89.7 28.6 29.2 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 30.3 31.2 29.2 2.5 88.0 84.2 28.2 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 30.6 31.5 30.3 2.5 89.2 85.1 28.6 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 29.7 30.4 29.2 2.0 85.4 80.5 27.8 28.3 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 30.7 31.0 28.5 1.4 76.8 72.4 28.8 29.6 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 30.2 31.4 30.5 2.8 91.0 87.4 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 31.5 32.4 31.6 2.7 91.1 87.1 29.6 30.2 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 31.6 32.2 29.6 2.1 85.4 80.7 29.6 30.2 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 29.7 30.8 31.9 2.6 88.9 85.0 27.9 28.1 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 29.2 29.8 28.3 2.3 86.3 82.0 27.3 27.8 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 30.1 31.1 32.5 2.9 90.8 87.1 28.0 28.5 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 25.0 25.4 25.2 1.3 77.3 72.2 23.2 23.8 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 30.6 31.6 32.0 2.8 91.0 87.4 28.4 29.4 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 30.1 31.4 31.5 2.4 86.5 82.6 28.0 28.6 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 30.2 31.1 32.7 3.3 93.0 90.2 28.3 28.6 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 29.9 30.6 30.5 2.7 90.3 86.8 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 30.9 32.2 31.0 2.9 92.0 88.2 28.7 29.6 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 30.3 30.5 28.1 1.2 73.1 69.4 28.7 29.3 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 29.9 31.6 31.6 2.9 92.4 88.5 28.3 28.8 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 31.5 32.1 30.4 2.4 88.6 84.4 29.4 30.1 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 24.6 25.0 27.0 1.9 82.4 77.8 22.6 23.3 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 30.1 31.5 32.4 2.8 90.2 86.4 28.1 28.9 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------