***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 31.0 31.8 32.3 2.9 82.5 76.2 28.4 29.2 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 30.5 31.2 32.0 2.6 77.4 73.7 28.1 28.9 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 30.3 31.2 32.6 3.0 82.1 75.9 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 23.4 25.2 30.8 3.1 86.0 78.4 20.8 21.3 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 31.0 32.2 30.8 2.9 83.4 76.0 28.5 29.4 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.8 27.0 1.6 71.5 67.6 27.2 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.6 31.9 2.6 78.1 73.9 28.0 28.9 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 18.4 19.1 28.6 2.5 78.1 73.2 16.5 17.3 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.3 31.6 31.1 3.0 84.3 76.6 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 29.8 30.9 29.5 2.8 81.0 74.8 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 30.6 31.9 30.4 2.8 83.2 75.9 28.3 28.8 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 29.6 30.3 29.9 2.5 79.3 73.6 27.5 28.3 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 31.0 31.4 28.7 1.9 74.0 69.2 28.6 29.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 30.1 31.1 30.2 2.9 80.9 74.8 27.8 28.5 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 31.3 32.1 31.5 3.1 85.5 79.3 28.9 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 31.6 32.2 29.9 2.6 81.1 74.4 29.4 30.2 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 30.0 30.2 31.5 2.5 75.1 72.2 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 28.5 29.3 28.7 2.7 79.8 73.5 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.8 32.2 2.8 79.0 74.7 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 24.9 25.3 25.7 2.0 73.9 69.2 22.9 24.0 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.4 31.1 31.8 2.8 80.9 75.4 27.7 29.3 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 30.6 30.6 31.2 2.4 74.6 71.3 27.9 29.1 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 30.2 31.5 32.3 3.1 82.3 76.6 27.6 28.4 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 29.8 31.0 30.3 2.9 81.5 75.2 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 30.9 31.9 30.8 2.9 83.3 76.7 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 30.5 30.9 29.1 1.9 75.0 70.0 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 30.5 31.3 31.4 2.9 83.3 76.5 27.6 28.8 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 31.1 31.9 30.8 2.9 83.8 77.4 28.6 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 24.3 24.7 27.4 2.3 76.3 71.1 22.1 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 30.2 31.0 32.2 2.7 79.6 74.6 27.8 28.8 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------