***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 32.1 33.1 32.9 3.1 86.0 77.6 28.4 30.0 31.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 31.1 31.7 32.5 2.8 81.7 73.9 28.5 29.2 31.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 31.6 32.4 33.1 3.1 86.2 77.0 28.2 29.3 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 24.8 26.0 31.6 3.5 89.7 81.8 21.9 23.6 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 32.1 33.4 31.5 3.2 87.8 79.0 28.4 30.6 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 30.2 30.6 27.5 1.7 76.1 68.1 28.2 29.5 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.0 32.5 2.8 83.2 74.7 27.8 29.5 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 19.5 20.6 29.3 2.9 85.5 75.5 17.8 18.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 31.8 32.7 31.8 3.4 87.8 79.0 28.8 30.2 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 31.2 32.4 30.2 3.1 86.6 76.7 28.2 30.0 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 31.6 32.5 31.2 3.3 87.7 79.0 28.2 30.0 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.2 30.7 3.0 85.6 76.8 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 31.5 31.9 29.3 2.2 79.4 71.7 29.1 30.5 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 31.0 31.9 30.6 2.8 83.3 74.3 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 32.1 34.1 32.2 3.4 90.7 81.9 29.7 31.0 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 32.5 33.4 30.6 2.9 85.2 77.4 28.9 31.2 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 30.4 31.0 32.1 2.6 79.0 72.6 27.7 29.0 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 30.0 31.0 29.3 2.9 83.4 74.2 27.0 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 31.0 31.8 32.7 2.9 82.8 74.5 27.5 28.8 31.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 26.0 26.5 26.3 2.2 78.3 70.4 24.1 25.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 31.6 32.9 32.4 3.1 86.5 77.1 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.7 31.7 2.4 77.2 70.7 27.7 29.4 31.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 31.3 32.2 32.7 3.1 84.9 76.2 28.0 29.0 30.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 30.9 31.7 30.9 3.0 84.4 75.6 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 32.1 33.1 31.5 3.2 86.9 78.8 29.2 30.3 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 31.0 31.6 29.9 2.4 81.7 73.6 28.7 30.1 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 31.3 32.9 32.0 3.1 86.6 78.0 28.3 29.6 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 32.0 32.9 31.5 3.2 88.7 80.0 29.4 31.2 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 25.5 26.1 27.9 2.4 79.5 71.1 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 31.5 32.6 32.7 2.9 83.7 75.0 27.7 29.2 31.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------