***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 31.0 32.3 33.3 3.7 90.6 83.5 27.6 28.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 30.8 32.3 33.1 3.6 89.1 81.9 27.7 28.6 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 31.6 32.4 33.4 3.7 90.4 82.5 27.0 28.7 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 25.0 26.6 30.9 3.7 91.5 82.8 20.0 23.3 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 32.0 33.5 31.5 3.5 90.1 81.3 27.0 30.0 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.4 26.9 1.3 69.2 63.5 26.2 28.3 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 30.3 32.0 33.1 3.6 90.3 82.6 27.5 27.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 19.8 20.9 28.6 2.6 83.4 74.8 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 31.5 33.2 32.3 3.9 91.5 83.3 27.2 29.5 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 31.0 32.6 30.0 3.2 87.7 78.6 26.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 31.6 33.1 31.2 3.2 88.2 79.1 26.7 29.4 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 30.8 32.0 30.0 2.8 84.0 75.6 26.3 28.6 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 31.7 32.3 29.5 2.1 77.9 70.7 27.3 29.8 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 30.7 32.6 31.4 3.7 90.1 81.7 26.6 28.5 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 32.1 33.3 32.5 3.4 90.3 81.6 27.7 31.0 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 32.8 33.8 30.4 2.8 84.9 76.2 27.6 31.1 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.9 31.1 32.6 3.5 89.1 81.8 27.4 28.5 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 30.3 30.9 29.0 3.0 85.2 77.6 26.0 28.2 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 30.1 31.8 33.3 3.7 90.0 82.3 27.4 28.2 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 26.5 26.6 25.9 2.0 74.8 70.4 22.0 23.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 31.5 33.2 32.9 3.6 90.3 81.7 27.0 29.0 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 30.3 31.7 32.2 3.2 87.0 79.6 27.5 28.6 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 30.9 32.0 33.5 4.2 92.1 84.1 27.1 28.1 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.4 32.4 31.3 3.5 89.4 81.1 26.4 28.3 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 31.3 33.4 31.9 3.7 90.9 82.4 27.1 28.9 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 31.3 31.7 28.8 1.9 75.6 68.9 26.6 29.4 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 31.1 32.5 32.4 3.7 90.8 82.8 26.9 28.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 32.0 33.2 31.2 3.2 88.6 79.4 27.8 31.0 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 25.7 26.5 27.7 2.6 80.3 74.5 21.1 23.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 30.6 32.1 33.2 3.6 89.6 82.0 27.4 28.1 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------